BELGIUM - ITALY
There is a clear but slim favourite here. Belgium is the shortest price on a book of 2.24 / 3.88 / 3.06 (1 / X / 2), an implied 43.3%. Across the three outcomes the book reads 43.3% / 25.0% / 31.7% on an overround of 3.1%.
Liquidity is strong — €22,378 already matched on the 1X2 market, putting this among the most heavily traded fixtures on the card. Prices in a market that deep are far more reliable than in a thin one.
Belgium team news: Romeo Lavia has completed his one-game ban and is now eligible for selection this coming matchweek.
Belgium team news: Romelu Lukaku did not feature against Türkiye due to a hip issue and is still considered uncertain for the match versus Italy.
Italy team news: Roberto Mancini could name an unchanged starting line-up for this decisive final group-stage encounter.
Italy team news: Italy will be without four first-choice players for Sunday’s trip to Belgium.
Belgium are without 3 — Amadou Onana (Out - injured), Romelu Lukaku (Doubtful - injured), Loïs Openda (Out - injured).
Italy are without 4 — Matteo Ruggeri (Out - injured), Giacomo Raspadori (Out - injured), Giovanni Di Lorenzo (Out - injured), Mohamed Alì Zoma (Out - injured).
Early lineups are in: Belgium set up 4-2-3-1 against 4-3-3. See the pitch graphic above for the full XI.
Belgium lean hardest on Timothy Castagne (9.5), Dodi Lukébakio (9.5), Brandon Mechele (9.0) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.
Romelu Lukaku is out for Belgium — index 7.3, against 8.3 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.
Italy lean hardest on Nicolò Barella (9.0), Gianluigi Donnarumma (9.0), Sandro Tonali (9.0) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.
Matteo Ruggeri is out for Italy — index 7.2, against 8.1 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.
Giacomo Raspadori is out for Italy — index 5.5, against 8.4 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.
Giovanni Di Lorenzo is out for Italy — index 6.6, against 8.1 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.
The projected score for this one is Belgium 2 - 2 Italy, a draw with 4 goals in it — on the right side of the 2.5 line.
The read: Belgium at 2.24 is the side the market is with, and nothing in the data above argues against it.
This analysis is generated automatically from BTFNews odds, market and statistical data at 22:30 on 14th November 2026. It is information, not advice — always check team news before the off.