FRANCE - TURKIYE
A heavy favourite, with the price to match. France is the shortest price on a book of 1.222 / 7.5 / 11 (1 / X / 2), an implied 78.5%. Across the three outcomes the book reads 78.5% / 12.8% / 8.7% on an overround of 4.3%.
Liquidity is strong — €99,057 already matched on the 1X2 market, putting this among the most heavily traded fixtures on the card. Prices in a market that deep are far more reliable than in a thin one.
France team news: Before the match against Italy, Aurelien Tchouameni and Marcus Thuram exited the France squad.
France team news: A knock kept Kylian Mbappe out of the Italy game, and he may not be fit for Sunday's fixture.
Turkiye team news: Abdülkerim Bardakci has completed his suspension, but Ozan Kabak will miss the game after picking up too many yellow cards.
Turkiye team news: Hakan Çalhanoglu, Zeki Celik and Can Uzun may all return for the away match in France.
France are without 12 — Jules Koundé (Out - injured), Désiré Doué (Doubtful - injured), Kylian Mbappé (Doubtful - injured), Maxence Lacroix (Out - injured), Pierre Kalulu (Out - injured), Ousmane Dembélé (Out - injured). Losing Jules Koundé (7.44/10) and Désiré Doué (7.42/10) is the kind of absence that moves a price.
Turkiye are without 5 — Aral Simsir (Out - injured), Adil Demirbag (Out - injured), Kenan Yildiz (Out - injured), Mert Müldür (Out - injured), Ozan Kabak (Out - suspended). Losing Aral Simsir (6.97/10) is the kind of absence that moves a price.
Early lineups are in: France set up 4-2-3-1 against 4-2-3-1. See the pitch graphic above for the full XI.
France lean hardest on Eduardo Camavinga (9.5), Michael Olise (9.5), Rayan Cherki (9.5) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.
Jules Koundé is out for France — index 7.7, against 8.5 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.
Désiré Doué is out for France — index 9.5, against 8.5 for the best cover we hold at his position. Noticeable.
Kylian Mbappé is out for France — index 6.5, against 8.5 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.
Maxence Lacroix is out for France — index 7.5, against 8.5 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.
Pierre Kalulu is out for France — index 7.8, against 8.5 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.
Ousmane Dembélé is out for France — index 7.2, against 8.5 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.
Maghnes Akliouche is out for France — index 6.9, against 8.5 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.
Esteban Lepaul is out for France — index 7.1, against 8.5 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.
Turkiye lean hardest on Ugurcan Çakir (8.9), Ismail Yüksek (8.8), Abdülkerim Bardakci (8.7) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.
Aral Simsir is out for Turkiye — index 6.2, against 8.6 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.
Ozan Kabak is out for Turkiye — index 7.9, against 9.1 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.
The projected score for this one is France 3 - 0 Turkiye, a home win by 3 with 3 goals in it — on the right side of the 2.5 line.
The read: France at 1.222 is short enough that the value, if there is any, sits on the handicap or in the goals market rather than the outright.
This analysis is generated automatically from BTFNews odds, market and statistical data at 22:30 on 14th November 2026. It is information, not advice — always check team news before the off.