ENGLAND - CROATIA
This is priced as a mismatch. England is the shortest price on a book of 1.222 / 7 / 11 (1 / X / 2), an implied 77.8%. Across the three outcomes the book reads 77.8% / 13.6% / 8.6% on an overround of 5.2%.
Liquidity is strong — €49,913 already matched on the 1X2 market, putting this among the most heavily traded fixtures on the card. Prices in a market that deep are far more reliable than in a thin one.
Our monitoring has flagged unusual money on this game: 94% of the matched volume has gone on over 2.5 goals. Treat it as a signal to look closer, not as a tip in itself.
England team news: Harry Kane is set to begin for England, marking his first international appearance since claiming the Ballon d'Or.
England team news: Bukayo Saka and Marc Guehi will not be available for selection when England face Croatia on Thursday.
Croatia team news: Ivan Perisic, the winger, will miss the match against England due to a suspension following his red card in the fourth gameweek against Spain.
Croatia team news: Martin Baturina is likely to take his place, with Mario Pasalic and Petar Sucic potentially also starting.
England are without 2 — Bukayo Saka (Out - injured), Marc Guéhi (Out - injured).
Croatia are without 5 — Ivan Perisic (Out - suspended), Kristijan Jakic (Out - injured), Josip Sutalo (Out - injured), Franjo Ivanovic (Out - injured), Marin Pongracic (Out - injured).
Early lineups are in: England set up 4-2-3-1 against 4-2-3-1. See the pitch graphic above for the full XI.
England lean hardest on Jordan Pickford (8.5), Ezri Konsa (8.5), Jude Bellingham (8.5) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.
Bukayo Saka is out for England — index 7.5, against 9.3 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.
Marc Guéhi is out for England — index 7.5, against 9.5 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.
Croatia lean hardest on Dominik Livakovic (7.6), Luka Modric (7.6), Josko Gvardiol (7.6) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.
Ivan Perisic is out for Croatia — index 7.9, against 8.9 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.
Kristijan Jakic is out for Croatia — index 6.6, against 8.9 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.
Josip Sutalo is out for Croatia — index 8.0, against 8.9 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.
Franjo Ivanovic is out for Croatia — index 6.8, against 8.9 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.
Marin Pongracic is out for Croatia — index 7.1, against 8.9 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.
The projected score for this one is England 3 - 0 Croatia, a home win by 3 with 3 goals in it — on the right side of the 2.5 line.
The read: England at 1.222 is short enough that the value, if there is any, sits on the handicap or in the goals market rather than the outright.
This analysis is generated automatically from BTFNews odds, market and statistical data at 22:30 on 11th November 2026. It is information, not advice — always check team news before the off.