12th November ITALY - FRANCE

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• Bookmakers are siding decisively with one team. France is the shortest price on a book of 4.33 / 4 / 1.75 (1 / X / 2), an implied 54.3%. Across the three outcomes the book reads 21.9% / 23.8% / 54.3% on an overround of 5.2%.

• Italy team news: Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Matteo Ruggeri and Giacomo Raspadori are all expected to be absent for Italy.

• Italy team news: Roberto Mancini might choose to start Daniele Ghilardi, the Roma defender, in Thursday's match.

• France team news: Dayot Upamecano, who missed the Belgium match due to suspension, is eligible to play on Thursday.

• France team news: Michael Olise and Desire Doue will come back into the France team after being substituted against Belgium.

• Italy are without 5 — Matteo Ruggeri (Out - injured), Giacomo Raspadori (Out - injured), Gianluca Mancini (Out - injured), Giovanni Di Lorenzo (Out - injured), Mohamed Alì Zoma (Out - injured).

• France are without 5 — Jules Koundé (Out - injured), Maxence Lacroix (Out - injured), Pierre Kalulu (Out - injured), Ousmane Dembélé (Out - injured), Maghnes Akliouche (Out - injured). Of those, Jules Koundé (7.44/10) is the one this team genuinely misses.

• Early lineups are in: Italy set up 4-3-3 against 4-2-3-1. See the pitch graphic above for the full XI.

• Italy lean hardest on Nicolò Barella (8.9), Gianluigi Donnarumma (8.9), Sandro Tonali (8.9) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.

• Matteo Ruggeri is out for Italy — index 7.8, against 7.8 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.

• Giacomo Raspadori is out for Italy — index 5.8, against 8.3 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.

• Gianluca Mancini is out for Italy — index 6.4, against 7.8 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.

• Giovanni Di Lorenzo is out for Italy — index 7.0, against 7.8 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.

• France lean hardest on Eduardo Camavinga (9.5), Michael Olise (9.5), Rayan Cherki (9.5) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.

• Jules Koundé is out for France — index 8.5, against 8.5 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.

• Maxence Lacroix is out for France — index 8.1, against 8.5 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.

• Pierre Kalulu is out for France — index 8.5, against 8.5 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.

• Ousmane Dembélé is out for France — index 7.8, against 9.1 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.

• Maghnes Akliouche is out for France — index 7.5, against 8.5 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.

• The projected score for this one is Italy 1 - 2 France, an away win by 1 with 3 goals in it — on the right side of the 2.5 line.

• The read: France at 1.75 is the side the market is with, and nothing in the data above argues against it.

• This analysis is generated automatically from BTFNews odds, market and statistical data at 13:00 on 11th November 2026. It is information, not advice — always check team news before the off.