DERBY - BOLTON
The market cannot separate these two. Derby is the shortest price on a book of 2.50 / 3.30 / 2.65 (1 / X / 2), an implied 37.0%. Across the three outcomes the book reads 37.0% / 28.0% / 34.9% on an overround of 8.0%.
The draw is unusually well backed at 3.30 (28.0%), which normally points to a cagey, low-scoring game rather than an open one.
Liquidity is strong — €28,597 already matched on the 1X2 market, putting this among the most heavily traded fixtures on the card. Prices in a market that deep are far more reliable than in a thin one.
In the league table Derby sit 23rd on 7 points (1W 4D 9L) with Bolton 17th on 17 points (5W 2D 7L).
Derby read L-L-D-L-L-D across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (0W 2D 4L) — poor.
Bolton read W-L-L-D-W-L across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (2W 1D 3L) — more bad than good.
Head to head the record reads 3-1-2 — Derby wins, draws, then Bolton wins. Their last meeting finished Derby - Bolton: 1-0.
Derby lean hardest on Sammie Szmodics (9.5), Bobby Clark (9.2), Sam Szmodics (9.1) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.
Bolton lean hardest on Josh Sheehan (9.5), Sam Dalby (8.8), Thierry Gale (8.5) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.
The read: Everything here points at a tight, low-tempo game. The draw at 3.30 is the selection the numbers keep coming back to, and the unders are the natural second look.
This analysis is generated automatically from BTFNews odds, market and statistical data at 14:30 on 6th November 2026. It is information, not advice — always check team news before the off.