6th November DERBY - BOLTON

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• The market cannot separate these two. Derby is the shortest price on a book of 2.45 / 3.40 / 2.65 (1 / X / 2), an implied 37.8%. Across the three outcomes the book reads 37.8% / 27.2% / 35.0% on an overround of 8.0%.

• The draw is unusually well backed at 3.40 (27.2%), which normally points to a cagey, low-scoring game rather than an open one.

• In the league table Derby sit 23rd on 7 points (1W 4D 9L) with Bolton 17th on 17 points (5W 2D 7L).

• Derby read L-L-D-L-L-D across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (0W 2D 4L) — poor.

• Bolton read W-L-L-D-W-L across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (2W 1D 3L) — more bad than good.

• Head to head the record reads 3-1-2 — Derby wins, draws, then Bolton wins. Their last meeting finished Derby - Bolton: 1-0.

• Derby lean hardest on Sammie Szmodics (9.5), Bobby Clark (9.2), Sam Szmodics (9.1) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.

• Bolton lean hardest on Josh Sheehan (9.5), Sam Dalby (8.8), Thierry Gale (8.5) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.

• The read: Everything here points at a tight, low-tempo game. The draw at 3.40 is the selection the numbers keep coming back to, and the unders are the natural second look.

• This analysis is generated automatically from BTFNews odds, market and statistical data at 13:30 on 5th November 2026. It is information, not advice — always check team news before the off.