NEW YORK RED BULLS - ST. LOUIS CITY
This is priced as a comfortable favourite. St. Louis City is the shortest price on a book of 3.60 / 4.33 / 1.79 (1 / X / 2), an implied 52.3%. Across the three outcomes the book reads 26.0% / 21.6% / 52.3% on an overround of 6.7%.
New York Red Bulls to win has drifted from 3.31 to 3.56 (7.0%). Layers are happy to take that side on, which is worth respecting.
Liquidity is strong — €11,088 already matched on the 1X2 market, putting this among the most heavily traded fixtures on the card. Prices in a market that deep are far more reliable than in a thin one.
Our monitoring has flagged unusual money on this game: 91% of the matched volume has gone on St. Louis City to win. Treat it as a signal to look closer, not as a tip in itself.
In the league table New York Red Bulls sit 16th on 33 points (9W 6D 11L) with St. Louis City 6th on 44 points (12W 8D 6L).
New York Red Bulls read W-W-L-D-L-D across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (2W 2D 2L) — patchy.
St. Louis City read W-W-D-W-D-W across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (4W 2D 0L) — a strong recent run.
New York Red Bulls team news: Mohammed Sofo will sit out Saturday's match against St. Louis City due to a one-game ban.
New York Red Bulls team news: New York Red Bulls are missing eight first-team players due to international commitments.
St. Louis City team news: Damion Downs is the lone St. Louis City player unavailable this weekend because of international duty.
St. Louis City team news: Yoann Damet is set to name an unchanged side following the victory over Toronto FC.
New York Red Bulls are without 12 — Justin Che (Doubtful - injured), Julian Hall (Out - international duty), Adri Mehmeti (Out - international duty), Ronald Donkor (Out - international duty), Matthew Dos Santos (Out - international duty), AJ Marcucci (Out - injured).
St. Louis City are without 3 — Kyle Hiebert (Out - injured), Brendan McSorley (Out - injured), Damion Downs (Out - international duty).
Early lineups are in: New York Red Bulls set up 4-3-3 against 3-4-1-2. See the pitch graphic above for the full XI.
New York Red Bulls lean hardest on Tim Parker (7.3), Ethan Horvath (7.3), Cade Cowell (7.3) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.
Justin Che is out for New York Red Bulls — index 8.4, against 8.9 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.
Julian Hall is out for New York Red Bulls — index 8.4, against 9.5 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.
Adri Mehmeti is out for New York Red Bulls — index 8.9, against 8.3 for the best cover we hold at his position. Noticeable.
Ronald Donkor is out for New York Red Bulls — index 7.7, against 8.9 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.
Matthew Dos Santos is out for New York Red Bulls — index 7.4, against 8.9 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.
Mohammed Sofo is out for New York Red Bulls — index 8.0, against 8.9 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.
Dennis Nelich is out for New York Red Bulls — index 5.5, against 9.5 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.
St. Louis City lean hardest on Timo Baumgartl (5.8), Tomas Totland (5.8), Chris Durkin (5.8) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.
The projected score for this one is New York Red Bulls 1 - 2 St. Louis City, an away win by 1 with 3 goals in it — on the right side of the 2.5 line.
The read: St. Louis City at 1.79 is the side the market is with, and nothing in the data above argues against it.
This analysis is generated automatically from BTFNews odds, market and statistical data at 20:30 on 26th September 2026. It is information, not advice — always check team news before the off.