27th September NEW YORK RED BULLS - ST. LOUIS CITY

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• This is priced as a comfortable favourite. St. Louis City is the shortest price on a book of 3.4 / 4.2 / 1.86 (1 / X / 2), an implied 50.3%. Across the three outcomes the book reads 27.5% / 22.3% / 50.3% on an overround of 7.0%.

• Our monitoring has flagged unusual money on this game: 93% of the matched volume has gone on St. Louis City to win. Treat it as a signal to look closer, not as a tip in itself.

• In the league table New York Red Bulls sit 16th on 33 points (9W 6D 11L) with St. Louis City 6th on 44 points (12W 8D 6L).

• New York Red Bulls read W-W-L-D-L-D across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (2W 2D 2L) — patchy.

• St. Louis City read W-W-D-W-D-W across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (4W 2D 0L) — a strong recent run.

• New York Red Bulls team news: Mohammed Sofo will sit out Saturday's match against St. Louis City due to a one-game ban.

• New York Red Bulls team news: New York Red Bulls are missing eight first-team players due to international commitments.

• St. Louis City team news: Damion Downs is the lone St. Louis City player unavailable this weekend because of international duty.

• St. Louis City team news: Yoann Damet is set to name an unchanged side following the victory over Toronto FC.

• New York Red Bulls are without 12 — Justin Che (Doubtful - injured), Julian Hall (Out - international duty), Adri Mehmeti (Out - international duty), Ronald Donkor (Out - international duty), Matthew Dos Santos (Out - international duty), AJ Marcucci (Out - injured).

• St. Louis City are without 3 — Kyle Hiebert (Out - injured), Brendan McSorley (Out - injured), Damion Downs (Out - international duty).

• Early lineups are in: New York Red Bulls set up 4-3-3 against 3-4-1-2. See the pitch graphic above for the full XI.

• New York Red Bulls lean hardest on Tim Parker (7.3), Ethan Horvath (7.3), Cade Cowell (7.3) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.

• Justin Che is out for New York Red Bulls — index 8.4, against 8.9 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.

• Julian Hall is out for New York Red Bulls — index 8.4, against 9.5 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.

• Adri Mehmeti is out for New York Red Bulls — index 8.9, against 8.3 for the best cover we hold at his position. Noticeable.

• Ronald Donkor is out for New York Red Bulls — index 7.7, against 8.9 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.

• Matthew Dos Santos is out for New York Red Bulls — index 7.4, against 8.9 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.

• Mohammed Sofo is out for New York Red Bulls — index 8.0, against 8.9 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.

• Dennis Nelich is out for New York Red Bulls — index 5.5, against 9.5 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.

• St. Louis City lean hardest on Timo Baumgartl (5.8), Tomas Totland (5.8), Chris Durkin (5.8) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.

• The projected score for this one is New York Red Bulls 1 - 2 St. Louis City, an away win by 1 with 3 goals in it — on the right side of the 2.5 line.

• The read: St. Louis City at 1.86 is the side the market is with, and nothing in the data above argues against it.

• This analysis is generated automatically from BTFNews odds, market and statistical data at 08:50 on 26th September 2026. It is information, not advice — always check team news before the off.