22nd October STURM GRAZ - MARSEILLE

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• The market has a firm view on this one. Marseille is the shortest price on a book of 3.7 / 3.5 / 2 (1 / X / 2), an implied 47.3%. Across the three outcomes the book reads 25.6% / 27.1% / 47.3% on an overround of 5.6%.

• The draw is unusually well backed at 3.5 (27.1%), which normally points to a cagey, low-scoring game rather than an open one.

• In the league table Sturm Graz sit 26th on 1 point (0W 1D 1L) with Marseille 32nd on 0 points (0W 0D 2L).

• Sturm Graz read W-L-W-L-D-W across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (3W 1D 2L) — patchy.

• Marseille read W-L-W-L-L-L across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (2W 0D 4L) — poor.

• Sturm Graz team news: Sturm will be missing Daniil Khudyakov, Gizo Mamageishvili, Nelson Weiper, Otar Kiteishvili, Filip Rózga, Seedy Jatta and Emran Soglo, resulting in a lengthy list of absentees for Fabio Ingolitsch.

• Sturm Graz team news: Arjan Malic, Joshua Quarshie and Petar Petrovic should be supported by Ammar Helac up front. In their last seven major European home games, Sturm have managed five clean sheets, letting in just two goals during this period.

• Marseille team news: Bruno Genesio will be without Derek Cornelius and Pierre-Emile Højbjerg, which restricts his choices in defence and midfield.

• Marseille team news: Jeffrey de Lange is set to start behind Timothy Weah, Bamo Meïté, Nayef Aguerd and Emerson. Marseille have conceded five goals in their first two Europa League matches and will aim for a more solid defensive performance.

• Sturm Graz are without 7 — Filip Rózga (Out - injured), Daniil Khudyakov (Out - injured), Nelson Weiper (Out - injured), Otar Kiteishvili (Out - injured), Seedy Jatta (Out - injured), Emran Soglo (Out - injured).

• Marseille are without 2 — Pierre-Emile Højbjerg (Out - injured), Derek Cornelius (Out - injured).

• Early lineups are in: Sturm Graz set up 3-4-1-2 against 4-2-3-1. See the pitch graphic above for the full XI.

• Sturm Graz lean hardest on Jon Gorenc Stankovic (7.0), Luís Balbo (7.0), Belmin Beganovic (7.0) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.

• Daniil Khudyakov is out for Sturm Graz — index 7.9, against 6.2 for the best cover we hold at his position. Real loss.

• Seedy Jatta is out for Sturm Graz — index 5.9, against 8.6 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.

• Emran Soglo is out for Sturm Graz — index 5.5, against 9.4 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.

• Gizo Mamageishvili is out for Sturm Graz — index 6.3, against 9.5 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.

• Marseille lean hardest on Angel Gomes (8.1), Nayef Aguerd (8.1), Jeffrey de Lange (8.1) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.

• Pierre-Emile Højbjerg is out for Marseille — index 6.1, against 9.5 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.

• Derek Cornelius is out for Marseille — index 6.0, against 9.2 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.

• The projected score for this one is Sturm Graz 1 - 2 Marseille, an away win by 1 with 3 goals in it — on the right side of the 2.5 line.

• The read: Marseille at 2 is the side the market is with, and nothing in the data above argues against it.

• This analysis is generated automatically from BTFNews odds, market and statistical data at 22:30 on 21st October 2026. It is information, not advice — always check team news before the off.