24 May 2015 17:00 Newcastle v West Ham
Newcastle come into this game looking over their shoulder in the fight for Premier League survival. Last weekend they lost 1-2 to already relegated QPR. This was their 9th defeat in 10 matches and currently Newcastle sit in 17th place on 36 points which is just 2 ahead of Hull City who possess a better goal difference. So John Carvers side have to win this game to guarantee survival. Newcastle’s recent home record reads an average looking W6, D3, L6.
When hosting teams of West Ham’s stature Newcastle’s record reads a reasonable looking W5, D2, L3 and Newcastle can be backed at around 1.75.
The recent head-to-head record at the St James Park is mixed and reads Newcastle 1 win, 1 Draw and West Ham 1 win.
The draw can be backed at around 4.10 and this looks to offer some decent value, especially when taking into account West Ham’s recent away form to similar opposition.
West Ham are finishing the season in fairly poor form. The Hammers are coming off a 1-2 defeat to Everton and currently they sit in 11thplace on 47 points. West Ham’s away form is average at best and they have now not won away from Upton Park in 12 matches and their recent record reads W2, D6, L7
When facing teams of Newcastle’s grade West Ham’s away record is very resilient and reads W2, D6, L2 and the Hammers can be backed at around 4.90. If you do fancy West Ham to do well here then I would certainly look to keep an element of the 1 goal loss on my side and West Ham can be backed on the handicap +0.5/1.0 goals at around 1.98
When looking at the goal line my ratings suggest that there is some small value in the unders. When looking at both sides last 10 respective home and away games against similar opposition, in the 20 matches, 4 have seen 4 or more goals, 3 have seen 3 goals and 13 have seen 2 or less goals scored. Also 8 of West Ham’s last 11 away games have seen 2 or less goals. Under 2.5/3.0 goals can be backed at around 2.05.
This will certainly be some occasion at St James Park and the stats point to a nervous afternoon for the home supporters. Obviously much depends on how West Ham approach this match. However it should be remembered that Hammers manager Sam Allardyce will be returning to a club that sacked him and he will no doubt want to put one over on his old side. The value looks to be with the away side and the draw has to be given serious consideration. For my trade I am going to turn to the goal line where West Ham have only found the net in 3 of their last 7 away games and here they are coming up against a Newcastle side who have only scored 2 or more goals in 1 of their last 8 home games. I expect a tight tense affair and my recommended trade for this game is under 2.5/3 goals at around 2.03