16 May 2015 19:30 Liverpool v Crystal Palace
Match Stats
Liverpool’s chances of qualifying for the Champions League all but evaporated after a spirited 1-1 draw away at Champions Chelsea last weekend. This draw has now left Brendan Rodgers side 6 points behind Manchester United with 2 matches left to play. However United have a far superior goal difference, although Liverpool are very much in contention to grab a Europa Cup place. Liverpools recent home record reads W9, D4, L3
When playing the mid table sides, Liverpool again boast a very reasonable looking record that reads W6, D4, L0 and Liverpool can be backed at around 1.47.
The recent head-to-head matches reads Liverpool 1 win, 0 Draws and Crystal Palace 0 wins.
The draw can be backed at around 4.85 and according to my ratings this offers some value.
Crystal Palace are coming into this match on the back of a fairly poor run and after losing 1-2 to Manchester United last weekend they have now lost 4 Premier League games on the bounce. Interestingly Alan Pardew’s side seem to perform better away from Selhurst Park and their recent away record reads a very resilient looking W5, D5, L5
If Palace do have a weakness it is certainly away to the top sides and their recent away record reads a very poor looking W1, D0, L8 and Palace can be backed at around 8.00. If you do fancy Palace to do well here then you are probably best keeping the 1 goal loss on your side and they can be backed on the Asian Handicap + 1goals at around 2.16 and this looks to offer some value.
Goal Stats
As far as goals are concerned and with the line set at 2.5/3 then there looks some value backing unders. When looking at both sides last 10 respective home and away matches against similar opposition then 6 of the 20 matches have seen 4 or more goals, 5 matches have seen 3 and 9 matches have seen 2 or less. My ratings suggest some value in under 2.5/3 goals which can be backed at around 1.96.
Prediction
This is an interesting matchup and my ratings suggest value in both the match and goal lines. There is no question Palace have certainly improved under Alan Pardew and they are a very resilient unit away from Selhurst Park. However as previously stated their away form to the top Premier League sides is poor and Liverpool are deserved favourites in what is bound to be an emotional affair with it being Steven Gerrard’s last home game.
In Palace's last 9 away matches they have only conceded more than 1 goal once. Also Palace have not scored away at a Top 6 side in 6 of their last 7 meetings. These trends are strong and although there is value backing Palace on the Match line I am going to turn to the goal line where only 2 of Liverpools last 10 home games hosting mid table sides have seen 4 or more goals and there looks some good risk v reward backing under 2.5/3 goals. So my recommended trade is under 2.5/3 goals at around 1.96.
16 May 2015 14:45 Southampton v Aston Villa
Despite losing 4 of their last 6 Premier league matches, Southampton have had an excellent season. Currently the Saints sit in 7th place on 57 points and they still have an outside chance of gaining a Europa Cup place. Southampton are coming off a 0-2 defeat at Leicester and their recent home form reads an above average W8, D3, L4.
When facing teams of Villa’s standing Ronald Koeman’s side boast a reasonable record that reads W5, D3, L2 and Southampton can be backed at around 1.78. If you want to enhance this price Southampton can be backed on the -0.5/1 goal handicap at around 2.05.
The recent head-to-head record at St Marys reads Southampton 1 win, 0 Draws and Aston Villa 1 win.
The draw can be backed at around 3.80 and this does not look to offer any real value.
Aston Villa are coming into this match in some very good form. There is no question about it the appointment of Tim Sherwood has made a huge difference and as well as reaching the FA Cup final Villa have now won 3 of their last 4 Premier League matches. After beating West Ham 1-0 at the weekend Villa now sit in 14th place on 38 points which is now 4 points above the drop zone. Aston Villa’s recent away form reads W3, D2, L10
When facing teams of Southampton’s grade Villa’s away record reads a mediocre looking W2, D1, L7. If you do fancy them to do well here then you are certainly best keeping an element of the 1 goal loss on your side and Villa can be backed + (0.5/1.0) goals at around 1.90.
As far as goals are concerned then there is a leaning to unders. When looking at both sides 15 home and away matches, we can see that in the 30 matches 12 have seen 3 or more goals scored, 9 have seen 2 goals, and 11 have seen 1 or less scored. When looking at Southampton’s recent home form to teams of Villa’s stature then 7 of their last 9 have seen 2 or less goals scored. My ratings suggest there is some small value in under 2.0/2.5 goals which can be backed at around 1.88.
As previously stated there is no question Villa have certainly improved under Tim Sherwood and indeed this season Villa have recorded victories at both Liverpool and Spurs. However despite their recent poor form Southampton perform solidly at St Mary’s especially against the lower half sides. This season when facing sides placed 11th and below the Saints have Won 8, Drawn 1 and lost none. When looking at the goal line although the ratings point to unders the last 2 games at St Marys have been entertaining affairs. So I am going to turn to the match line where when facing the bottom half sides Southampton have won 6 of their 8 victories by 2 or more goals My ratings suggest Southampton offer decent value here and so my recommended trade for this game is Southampton - (0.5/1.0) goals at around 2.05.
16 May 2015 17:00 Sunderland v Leicester
Sunderland gained 3 vital points when beating Everton 2-0 at Goodison Park last weekend and this victory has given Sunderland an excellent chance of avoiding relegation. Dick Advocaat’s side now sit in 16th place on 36 points which is 2 points ahead of 18th place Hull. After today Sunderland finish the season at Arsenal on Wednesday and at Champions Chelsea next Sunday, so they will certainly be targeting this game. Sunderland’s recent home record reads an average looking W4, D4, L7.
When playing the bottom half sides at home Sunderland’s record reads an average looking W3, D2, L5 and Sunderland can be backed at around 2.80.
This is the first time the 2 sides have met at Sunderland in the Premier League in the last 5 years.
The draw can be backed at around 3.30 and this should be given some serious consideration.
Leicester are coming into this game on the back of some good form. Nigel Pearson’s side won 2-0 at home to Southampton last weekend and Leicester have now won 6 of their last 7 League games. This recent run of good form has left the Foxes in 15th place on 37 points which is 1 place and 1 point above today’s opponents. After today Leicester face QPR at home in their final game of the season and 3 points will see Leicester safe. Leicester’s recent away record reads W3, D2, L10
When facing teams of Sunderland’s grade Leicester’s away record reads a reasonable looking W3, D1, L4 and Leicester can be backed at around 2.80.
Goal Stats
As far as goals are concerned then we have some mixed stats. When looking at both sides last 10 respective home and away games to similar opposition 9 games have seen 3 or more goals, 4 have seen 2 goals and 5 games have seen 1 or less goal scored. My ratings suggest value in over 2/2.5 goals and this can be backed at around 1.86.
This is a vital match and when looking at the goal line although my ratings suggest value in Over 2/2.5 goals, 9 of Sunderlands last 14 home games have seen 2 or less goals as have 4 of Leicester’s last 5 visiting teams placed in the bottom 6.
Prediction
There is also the possibility this game could be played at a pedestrian pace in the final stages depending on how 18th placed Hull are faring at Spurs. However, with Sunderland facing Arsenal & Chelsea next their need is certainly the greater. In the above case the draw has to be given serious consideration.
For my trade I am going to keep the draw on my side and go with Leicester who have come into form at just the right time having won their last 2 away matches. Also there are real question marks surrounding Sunderland’s home form where they have suffered recent heavy defeats to both Crystal Palace & Aston Villa. They have also lost to Hull & QPR. Leicester have performed creditably away from home in the second half of this season and they look a reasonable option off scratch on the handicap.
17 May 2015 15:30 Swansea v Man City
Swansea’s excellent season continued last Monday with a superb 1-0 victory over Arsenal at the Emirates and this was their 3rd Premier League win on the bounce. Garry Monk’s side are heading for their best ever season and currently they sit in 8th place on 56 points which is only 2 points behind 6th place Spurs. Swansea’s recent home record reads a decent W7, D5, L3.
When playing the top sides of the Premier League Swansea boast a very poor record which reads W3, D0, L7 and Swansea can be backed at around 5.30.
The recent head-to-head record at the Liberty Stadium is mixed and reads Swansea 1 win, 1 Draw and Manchester City 1 win.
If you do fancy Swansea to do well here then your best option is certainly to keep an element of the 1 goal loss on your side and Swansea can be backed on the handicap +0.5/1 goal at around 2.05.
The draw can be backed at around 4.15 and this looks to offer some reasonable value.
Despite Manchester City’s recent disappointments they are finishing the season in good style. They are coming off a comfortable 6-0 victory over QPR. Manuel Pellegrini’s side have now won 4 Premier league games on the bounce and City’s recent away record reads W7, D3, L5
When facing teams of Swansea’s grade Manchester City’s away record reads a reasonable looking W5, D2, L3 and they can be backed at around 1.70
When looking at the goal line then we have some very mixed stats here. Looking at both sides last respective 10 home and away matches against similar opposition then we have the following. 7 matches have seen 4 or more goals, 7 have seen 3 goals and 6 games have seen 2 or less goals. However when looking at Swansea’s recent home record then 9 of their last 14 matches have seen 2 or less goals. My ratings suggest that there is value looking at the overs and over 2.5/3 goals can be backed at around 1.85.
This looks a good matchup between 2 sides in some recent good form and my ratings suggest value in both the match and goal line. Looking at the goal line then when facing teams of Swansea’s stature 9 of Man Citys last 12 away games have seen 3 or more goals and over 2.5/3 goals looks a good option. For my trade I am turning to the match line where Manchester City look priced a little low. Swansea’s home record to the Top sides is generally poor. However it should be remembered that this season they have beaten both Arsenal and Manchester United. Also Swansea have only lost by 2 goals in 1 of their last 26 home games so the risk v reward on the +0.5/1 goal handicap looks worth taking on. So my recommended trade for this game is Swansea +0.5/1 goal at around 2.05.
17 May 2015 18:00 Man United v Arsenal
Match Stats
Manchester United ended a run of 3 consecutive losses when beating Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park last weekend. Currently Manchester United sit in 4th place on 68 points which is 2 points behind today’s opponents. Louis van Gaal’s side will be desperate for victory to gain a Top 3 spot and avoid early season qualification for the Champions League. Manchester United’s recent home record reads a strong looking W12, D1, L2.
When hosting the top Premier League sides, Manchester United’s record reads again a fairly mixed W3, D3, L4 and Manchester United can be backed at around 2.45 and this looks to offer some value. If you do fancy United to do well here then I would recommend keeping an element of the draw on your side and Manchester united can be backed -0/0.5 goals at around 2.10
The recent head-to-head record at Old Trafford is dominated by the home side and reads Manchester United 5 wins, 0 Draws and Arsenal 0 wins.
The draw can be backed at around 3.45 and when looking at my ratings this looks priced about right.
Arsenal are coming into this game on the back of a disappointing 0-1 home defeat to Swansea. Previous to this defeat Arsenal had taken 28 points from their last 10 matches and Arsene Wenger’s side will still be confident of finishing in 2nd place. Arsenal’s recent away record reads a good looking W9, D1, L5.
When facing the top sides of the Premier League away Arsenal’s recent away record is poor and reads a mediocre looking W2, D2, L6 and Arsenal can be backed at around 3.10.
Goal Stats
As far as goals are concerned then we have some mixed stats. When looking at both sides last 10 respective home and away matches to similar opposition we see that 10 games have seen 3 or more and 10 games have seen 2 or less. However the general stats point to overs. 10 of Manchester Uniteds last 15 home games and 9 of Arsenal’s last 15 away have seen 3 or more goals. Here my ratings suggest value backing over 2.5 goals at around 1.85.
Prediction
This should be another excellent match between 2 sides that are having very good seasons. My ratings suggest value in over 2.5 goals as has been seen in 9 of Manchester United’s last 12 home games. For my trade I am going to turn to the home side. Manchester United are having a good season at Old Trafford and here despite losing to Arsenal in the FA Cup earlier this year United have been completely dominant in this fixture. They have won 11 of their last 13 home games and they look decent value on the -0/0.5 handicap and so my recommended trade for this match is Manchester United -0/0.5 goals at around 2.10.