CALCIO PADOVA - SUDTIROL
This is priced as a comfortable favourite. Calcio Padova is the shortest price on a book of 2.05 / 3.00 / 3.60 (1 / X / 2), an implied 44.4%. Across the three outcomes the book reads 44.4% / 30.3% / 25.3% on an overround of 9.9%.
The draw is unusually well backed at 3.00 (30.3%), which normally points to a cagey, low-scoring game rather than an open one.
Money has come for Calcio Padova to win: the price has shortened from 2.39 to 2.16, a move of 10.6%. Steam like that on the day of the game usually reflects team news the wider market has not caught up with yet.
Sudtirol to win has drifted from 2.95 to 3.61 (18.3%). Layers are happy to take that side on, which is worth respecting.
Liquidity is strong — €14,427 already matched on the 1X2 market, putting this among the most heavily traded fixtures on the card. Prices in a market that deep are far more reliable than in a thin one.
The Asian line sits at -0.25 goals, with Calcio Padova giving the start, split 1.83 / 2.09. The handicap is the cleaner read on the expected margin here.
In the league table Calcio Padova sit 9th on 10 points (3W 1D 4L) with Sudtirol 7th on 13 points (3W 4D 1L).
Calcio Padova read W-L-L-L-W-L across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (2W 0D 4L) — poor.
Sudtirol read D-L-D-W-D-W across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (2W 3D 1L) — patchy.
Head to head the record reads 0-1-1 — Calcio Padova wins, draws, then Sudtirol wins. Their last meeting finished Sudtirol - Calcio Padova: 3-0.
Our last-six model flags 1 qualifying strike here. Reading Calcio Padova first, then Sudtirol, out of their last six: HT U 1.50 4 and 6.
Calcio Padova team news: The home side carry confidence from their last away win and look to build on it in front of their fans.
Calcio Padova team news: Antonio Calabro selects his familiar 3-5-2 setup, with Sorrentino in goal behind Dellavalle, Lovato, and Pastina.
Sudtirol team news: Possanzini opts for his usual 3-4-2-1 setup, with Plizzari chosen to guard the goal, supported by the customary defensive trio of Stivanello, Giorgini, and Stabile, who is in direct competition with Veroli for a starting spot.
Sudtirol team news: Tronchin and Rispoli will occupy the central midfield roles, with Molina and Davì taking up positions on the wings.
Calcio Padova are without 3 — Luca Zanimacchia (Out - injured), Gianluca Caprari (Out - injured), Kevin Lasagna (Out - injured).
Sudtirol are without 2 — Bjarki Bjarkason (Out - injured), Hamza El Kaouakibi (Out - injured).
Early lineups are in: Calcio Padova set up 3-5-2 against 3-4-2-1. See the pitch graphic above for the full XI.
Calcio Padova lean hardest on Lorenzo Carissoni (6.6), Alessandro Sorrentino (6.6), Matteo Lovato (6.6) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.
Gianluca Caprari is out for Calcio Padova — index 7.6, against 8.6 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.
Kevin Lasagna is out for Calcio Padova — index 7.1, against 8.6 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.
Sudtirol lean hardest on Salvatore Molina (6.1), Alessandro Plizzari (6.1), Riccardo Stivanello (6.1) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.
Bjarki Bjarkason is out for Sudtirol — index 6.6, against 9.5 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.
The projected score for this one is Calcio Padova 1 - 1 Sudtirol, a draw with 2 goals in it — short of the 2.5 line.
The read: Calcio Padova at 2.05 is the side the market is with, and nothing in the data above argues against it. The late money is pointing the same way.
This analysis is generated automatically from BTFNews odds, market and statistical data at 16:30 on 27th October 2026. It is information, not advice — always check team news before the off.