27th October CALCIO PADOVA - SUDTIROL

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• The market leans one way without any real conviction. Calcio Padova is the shortest price on a book of 2.32 / 3 / 3 (1 / X / 2), an implied 39.3%. Across the three outcomes the book reads 39.3% / 30.4% / 30.4% on an overround of 9.8%.

• The draw is unusually well backed at 3 (30.4%), which normally points to a cagey, low-scoring game rather than an open one.

• In the league table Calcio Padova sit 9th on 10 points (3W 1D 4L) with Sudtirol 7th on 13 points (3W 4D 1L).

• Calcio Padova read W-L-L-L-W-L across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (2W 0D 4L) — poor.

• Sudtirol read D-L-D-W-D-W across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (2W 3D 1L) — patchy.

• Head to head the record reads 0-1-1 — Calcio Padova wins, draws, then Sudtirol wins. Their last meeting finished Sudtirol - Calcio Padova: 3-0.

• Our last-six model flags 1 qualifying strike here. Reading Calcio Padova first, then Sudtirol, out of their last six: HT U 1.50 4 and 6.

• Calcio Padova lean hardest on Matteo Lovato (9.5), Pietro Fusi (8.7), Giovanni Giunti (8.7) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.

• Sudtirol lean hardest on Simone Tronchin (9.5), Riccardo Stivanello (9.5), Fabio Rispoli (9.3) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.

• The read: Everything here points at a tight, low-tempo game. The draw at 3 is the selection the numbers keep coming back to, and the unders are the natural second look.

• This analysis is generated automatically from BTFNews odds, market and statistical data at 08:50 on 26th October 2026. It is information, not advice — always check team news before the off.