CHERNO MORE VARNA - SEPTEMVRI SOFIA
The market has a firm view on this one. Cherno More Varna is the shortest price on a book of 1.81 / 3.40 / 4.33 (1 / X / 2), an implied 51.3%. Across the three outcomes the book reads 51.3% / 27.3% / 21.4% on an overround of 7.8%.
The draw is unusually well backed at 3.40 (27.3%), which normally points to a cagey, low-scoring game rather than an open one.
Money has come for Septemvri Sofia to win: the price has shortened from 4.78 to 4.44, a move of 7.7%. Steam like that on the day of the game usually reflects team news the wider market has not caught up with yet.
In the league table Cherno More Varna sit 14th on 6 points (1W 3D 7L) with Septemvri Sofia 13th on 8 points (2W 2D 7L).
Cherno More Varna read L-D-D-L-L-W across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (1W 2D 3L) — more bad than good.
Septemvri Sofia read L-L-L-L-D-W across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (1W 1D 4L) — poor.
Head to head the record reads 5-1-0 — Cherno More Varna wins, draws, then Septemvri Sofia wins. Their last meeting finished Septemvri Sofia - Cherno More Varna: 0-3.
Our last-six model flags 1 qualifying strike here. Reading Cherno More Varna first, then Septemvri Sofia, out of their last six: GG 4 and 4.
The read: Cherno More Varna at 1.81 is the side the market is with, and nothing in the data above argues against it. The late money is pointing the same way.
This analysis is generated automatically from BTFNews odds, market and statistical data at 08:50 on 27th October 2026. It is information, not advice — always check team news before the off.