Liverpool v Man. United
Liverpool are coming into this match in some reasonable domestic form, after beating Crystal Palace 2-1 in the dying minutes at Selhurst Park last weekend. This was the reds 3rd Premier League win on the bounce and currently they sit in 7th place on 44 points. Liverpool’s recent domestic home record reads a mixed looking W6, D5, L4.
When hosting the elite sides Liverpool’s record again reads a decent looking W4, D1, L5. Here they can be backed at around 2.10 and this does not look to offer any real value. Jürgen Klopp’s side also boast a very strong Europa League home record which reads W5, D4, L1. Indeed since 2003 they have only lost 1 of their last 26 home ties.
The recent head-to-head record at Anfield in all competitions is certainly mixed and reads Liverpool 2 wins, 0 draws and Manchester United 3 wins.
The draw can be backed at around 3.35 and this looks to offer some decent value, and should be given some serious consideration.
Manchester United are coming into this match after losing 0-1 away at West Brom last weekend and this defeat has left United in 6th place on 47 points. They are now 3 points behind 4th place Manchester City, and they have also played a game more. Manchester United’s recent away record reads a very mixed looking W5, D4, L6.
When facing sides placed in the top half of the Premier League, again Van Gaal’s side’s record is mixed and reads W4, D2, L4. Here Manchester United can be backed at around 4.00 and this looks to offer some value. If you do fancy the Red devils to do well, then you are probably best keeping the draw on your side and United can be backed on the +0.5 goal handicap at around 1.85.
As far as goals are concerned and with the line set at 2.0/2.5 then there is certainly a leaning to Overs. When looking at both sides last 10 home and away games against similar opposition. 11 games have seen 3 or more goals, 2 have seen 2 and only 7 games have seen 1 or less. Here my ratings are suggesting some decent value backing Over 2.0/2.5 goals can be backed at around 2.12.
This is a huge game for both sides, and the reality is, this competition represents both sides best opportunity of qualifying for next season’s Champions League. Here my ratings suggest value in both the match and goal lines. When considering the goal line, in the last 14 meetings of the 2 sides 10 have seen 3 or more goals and only 3 have seen 1 or less scored. There looks decent risk v reward looking for Overs, as Manchester United will certainly be keen to grab the away goal.
For my trade I am turning to the match line There is no question Liverpool are enjoying the better of the very recent form, but the value here lies with Manchester United. United have also won 8 of the last 10 meetings between the 2 sides, including the last 5. Here my ratings are suggesting this game should be played off scratch. So my recommended trade is Manchester united +0.5 goals at around 1.85.
Written by: Matchbook
Date: 07:41 09 Mar, 2016