CAGLIARI - BOLOGNA
The market cannot separate these two. Bologna is the shortest price on a book of 3 / 2.88 / 2.7 (1 / X / 2), an implied 35.2%. Across the three outcomes the book reads 31.7% / 33.0% / 35.2% on an overround of 5.1%.
The draw is unusually well backed at 2.88 (33.0%), which normally points to a cagey, low-scoring game rather than an open one.
Money has come for Cagliari to win: the price has shortened from 3.13 to 2.94, a move of 6.5%. Steam like that on the day of the game usually reflects team news the wider market has not caught up with yet.
Bologna to win has drifted from 2.47 to 2.64 (6.4%). Layers are happy to take that side on, which is worth respecting.
Liquidity is strong — €34,122 already matched on the 1X2 market, putting this among the most heavily traded fixtures on the card. Prices in a market that deep are far more reliable than in a thin one.
Our monitoring has flagged unusual money on this game: 53% of the matched volume has gone on over 2.5 goals. Treat it as a signal to look closer, not as a tip in itself.
In the league table Cagliari sit 8th on 13 points (4W 1D 2L) with Bologna 15th on 5 points (1W 2D 4L).
Cagliari read L-D-W-W-W-L across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (3W 1D 2L) — patchy.
Bologna read L-W-D-L-D-L across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (1W 2D 3L) — more bad than good.
Head to head the record reads 0-1-5 — Cagliari wins, draws, then Bologna wins. Their last meeting finished Bologna - Cagliari: 0-0.
Cagliari are without 2 — Riyad Idrissi (Out - injured), Mattia Felici (Out - injured).
Bologna are without 3 — Emil Holm (Out - injured), Roberto Piccoli (Out - injured), Riccardo Orsolini (Out - injured).
Early lineups are in: Cagliari set up 4-3-2-1 against 3-4-3. See the pitch graphic above for the full XI.
Cagliari lean hardest on Harry Winks (8.6), Michel Adopo (8.6), Elia Caprile (8.6) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.
Mattia Felici is out for Cagliari — index 5.5, against 9.5 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.
Bologna lean hardest on Juan Miranda (8.8), Nicolò Cambiaghi (8.8), Lewis Ferguson (8.8) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.
Emil Holm is out for Bologna — index 7.6, against 8.5 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.
Roberto Piccoli is out for Bologna — index 8.0, against 8.7 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.
Riccardo Orsolini is out for Bologna — index 6.1, against 8.7 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.
The projected score for this one is Cagliari 2 - 1 Bologna, a home win by 1 with 3 goals in it — on the right side of the 2.5 line.
The read: Everything here points at a tight, low-tempo game. The draw at 2.88 is the selection the numbers keep coming back to, and the unders are the natural second look. The late money is pointing the same way.
This analysis is generated automatically from BTFNews odds, market and statistical data at 06:50 on 24th October 2026. It is information, not advice — always check team news before the off.