NEWCASTLE - ASTON VILLA
There is a clear but slim favourite here. Newcastle is the shortest price on a book of 2.25 / 3.6 / 3 (1 / X / 2), an implied 42.1%. Across the three outcomes the book reads 42.1% / 26.3% / 31.6% on an overround of 5.6%.
Liquidity is strong — €40,691 already matched on the 1X2 market, putting this among the most heavily traded fixtures on the card. Prices in a market that deep are far more reliable than in a thin one.
In the league table Newcastle sit 11th on 8 points (2W 2D 2L) with Aston Villa 16th on 5 points (1W 2D 3L).
Newcastle read L-W-L-D-W-D across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (2W 2D 2L) — patchy.
Aston Villa read W-D-W-L-W-D across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (3W 2D 1L) — patchy.
Head to head the record reads 2-1-3 — Newcastle wins, draws, then Aston Villa wins. Their last meeting finished Newcastle - Aston Villa: 0-2.
Newcastle lean hardest on Yoane Wissa (9.5), Harvey Barnes (9.5), Sven Botman (9.5) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.
Aston Villa lean hardest on Zion Suzuki (9.5), John McGinn (9.2), Boubacar Kamara (9.2) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.
The read: Newcastle at 2.25 is the side the market is with, and nothing in the data above argues against it.
This analysis is generated automatically from BTFNews odds, market and statistical data at 20:30 on 16th October 2026. It is information, not advice — always check team news before the off.