17th October NEWCASTLE - ASTON VILLA

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• There is a clear but slim favourite here. Newcastle is the shortest price on a book of 2.25 / 3.6 / 3 (1 / X / 2), an implied 42.1%. Across the three outcomes the book reads 42.1% / 26.3% / 31.6% on an overround of 5.6%.

• In the league table Newcastle sit 11th on 8 points (2W 2D 2L) with Aston Villa 16th on 5 points (1W 2D 3L).

• Newcastle read L-W-L-D-W-D across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (2W 2D 2L) — patchy.

• Aston Villa read W-D-W-L-W-D across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (3W 2D 1L) — patchy.

• Head to head the record reads 2-1-3 — Newcastle wins, draws, then Aston Villa wins. Their last meeting finished Newcastle - Aston Villa: 0-2.

• Newcastle lean hardest on Yoane Wissa (9.5), Harvey Barnes (9.5), Sven Botman (9.5) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.

• Aston Villa lean hardest on Zion Suzuki (9.5), John McGinn (9.2), Boubacar Kamara (9.2) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.

• The read: Newcastle at 2.25 is the side the market is with, and nothing in the data above argues against it.

• This analysis is generated automatically from BTFNews odds, market and statistical data at 08:50 on 16th October 2026. It is information, not advice — always check team news before the off.