NOVORIZONTINO - CUIABA
This is priced as a mismatch. Novorizontino is the shortest price on a book of 1.61 / 3.40 / 6.00 (1 / X / 2), an implied 57.4%. Across the three outcomes the book reads 57.4% / 27.2% / 15.4% on an overround of 8.2%.
The draw is unusually well backed at 3.40 (27.2%), which normally points to a cagey, low-scoring game rather than an open one.
Liquidity is strong — €22,017 already matched on the 1X2 market, putting this among the most heavily traded fixtures on the card. Prices in a market that deep are far more reliable than in a thin one.
In the league table Novorizontino sit 2nd on 49 points (14W 7D 6L) with Cuiaba 10th on 39 points (9W 12D 6L).
Novorizontino read W-W-W-W-W-D across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (5W 1D 0L) — about as good as form gets.
Cuiaba read W-L-W-D-W-W across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (4W 1D 1L) — a strong recent run.
Head to head the record reads 2-0-0 — Novorizontino wins, draws, then Cuiaba wins. Their last meeting finished Cuiaba - Novorizontino: 0-1.
Novorizontino are without 4 — Christian Ortíz (Doubtful), Nicolas Careca (Suspended), Sander (Doubtful), Renato Palm (Out).
Cuiaba are without 1 — Pepê (Out). Of those, Pepê is the one this team genuinely misses.
Played at Estadio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biase, capacity 16,000. Braulio da Silva Machado takes charge.
The read: Novorizontino at 1.61 is the side the market is with, and nothing in the data above argues against it.
This analysis is generated automatically from BTFNews odds, market and statistical data at 22:00 on 13th September 2026. It is information, not advice — always check team news before the off.