LEEDS - NEWCASTLE
There is a clear but slim favourite here. Leeds is the shortest price on a book of 2.30 / 3.50 / 3.00 (1 / X / 2), an implied 41.3%. Across the three outcomes the book reads 41.3% / 27.1% / 31.6% on an overround of 5.4%.
The draw is unusually well backed at 3.50 (27.1%), which normally points to a cagey, low-scoring game rather than an open one.
Liquidity is strong — €127,315 already matched on the 1X2 market, putting this among the most heavily traded fixtures on the card. Prices in a market that deep are far more reliable than in a thin one.
In the league table Leeds sit 10th on 5 points (1W 2D 0L) with Newcastle 9th on 5 points (1W 2D 0L).
Leeds read D-D-W-L-W-D across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (2W 3D 1L) — patchy.
Newcastle read D-W-D-L-W-D across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (2W 3D 1L) — patchy.
Head to head the record reads 0-4-2 — Leeds wins, draws, then Newcastle wins. Their last meeting finished Newcastle - Leeds: 4-3.
Leeds team news: Mateo Joseph (ACL) is out for the rest of the season, while Joe Rodon (hamstring) is set to be out of action until October.
Leeds team news: Daniel Farke will name his strongest available team after making changes for the Chelsea game, and will go with the side that drew at Brighton.
Newcastle team news: Amar Dedic is a doubt after picking up a hamstring injury in the Millwall match.
Newcastle team news: Tino Livramento is in line to start for the first time since April, having played the second half in the Carabao Cup.
Leeds are without 3 — Joe Rodon (Out - injured), Mateo Joseph (Out - injured), Ilia Gruev (Doubtful - injured).
Newcastle are without 5 — Joelinton (Out - injured), William Osula (Out - injured), Ewen Jaouen (Out - injured), Dan Burn (Out - injured), Amar Dedic (Doubtful - injured).
Early lineups are in: Leeds set up 3-5-2 against 4-2-3-1. See the pitch graphic above for the full XI.
Leeds lean hardest on Nico Elvedi (9.1), James Justin (9.1), Jayden Bogle (9.1) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.
Joe Rodon is out for Leeds — index 8.1, against 8.9 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.
Newcastle lean hardest on Yoane Wissa (9.5), Harvey Barnes (9.5), Joe Willock (9.5) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.
Amar Dedic is out for Newcastle — index 7.0, against 9.5 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.
The projected score for this one is Leeds 1 - 1 Newcastle, a draw with 2 goals in it — short of the 2.5 line.
The read: Everything here points at a tight, low-tempo game. The draw at 3.50 is the selection the numbers keep coming back to, and the unders are the natural second look.
This analysis is generated automatically from BTFNews odds, market and statistical data at 20:30 on 13th September 2026. It is information, not advice — always check team news before the off.