14th September LEEDS - NEWCASTLE

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• There is a clear but slim favourite here. Leeds is the shortest price on a book of 2.30 / 3.50 / 3.00 (1 / X / 2), an implied 41.3%. Across the three outcomes the book reads 41.3% / 27.1% / 31.6% on an overround of 5.4%.

• The draw is unusually well backed at 3.50 (27.1%), which normally points to a cagey, low-scoring game rather than an open one.

• In the league table Leeds sit 10th on 5 points (1W 2D 0L) with Newcastle 9th on 5 points (1W 2D 0L).

• Leeds read D-D-W-L-W-D across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (2W 3D 1L) — patchy.

• Newcastle read D-W-D-L-W-D across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (2W 3D 1L) — patchy.

• Head to head the record reads 0-4-2 — Leeds wins, draws, then Newcastle wins. Their last meeting finished Newcastle - Leeds: 4-3.

• Leeds team news: Mateo Joseph (ACL) is out for the rest of the season, while Joe Rodon (hamstring) is set to be out of action until October.

• Leeds team news: Daniel Farke will name his strongest available team after making changes for the Chelsea game, and will go with the side that drew at Brighton.

• Newcastle team news: Amar Dedic is a doubt after picking up a hamstring injury in the Millwall match.

• Newcastle team news: Tino Livramento is in line to start for the first time since April, having played the second half in the Carabao Cup.

• Leeds are without 3 — Joe Rodon (Out - injured), Mateo Joseph (Out - injured), Ilia Gruev (Doubtful - injured).

• Newcastle are without 5 — William Osula (Out - injured), Joelinton (Out - injured), Dan Burn (Out - injured), Ewen Jaouen (Out - injured), Amar Dedic (Doubtful - injured).

• Early lineups are in: Leeds set up 3-5-2 against 4-2-3-1. See the pitch graphic above for the full XI.

• Leeds lean hardest on Nico Elvedi (9.1), James Justin (9.1), Jayden Bogle (9.1) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.

• Joe Rodon is out for Leeds — index 8.1, against 8.9 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.

• Newcastle lean hardest on Yoane Wissa (9.5), Harvey Barnes (9.5), Joe Willock (9.5) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.

• Amar Dedic is out for Newcastle — index 7.0, against 9.5 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.

• The projected score for this one is Leeds 1 - 1 Newcastle, a draw with 2 goals in it — short of the 2.5 line.

• The read: Everything here points at a tight, low-tempo game. The draw at 3.50 is the selection the numbers keep coming back to, and the unders are the natural second look.

• This analysis is generated automatically from BTFNews odds, market and statistical data at 06:50 on 13th September 2026. It is information, not advice — always check team news before the off.