22 Aug 2015 14:45 Manchester United v Newcastle


Manchester United have started the Premier League season in some decent form. They have won their opening matches, 1-0 at home to Spurs, and again 1-0 away at Aston Villa.  They also defeated Club Brugge 3-1 in a Champions League qualifier last Tuesday. Manchester United’s recent home record reads a strong looking W12, D1, L2.

When facing teams of Newcastle’s stature Louis van Gaal’s side boast a superb record that reads W9, D0, L1, with 5 of the 9 victories coming by 2 goals or more. Here Manchester United can be backed at around 1.38 and even at this price my ratings suggests that this offers some value. This price can be increased by backing them on the -1.0/1.5 goal handicap at around 1.93.

The recent head-to-head record at Old Trafford again favours the home side, and reads Manchester United 3 wins, 1 Draw and Newcastle 1 win.

The draw can be backed at around 5.25 and although this offers some value it offers little appeal, given both sides recent form against similar opposition.

Newcastle are coming into this game on the back of a poor 0-2 defeat at Swansea. This equalled their club record of seven consecutive away defeats. The manner of the defeat will have worried new boss Steve McClaren as for large parts of the game Newcastle could not get hold of the ball. Newcastle’s recent away record reads a poor looking W2, D2, L11.

When facing the Premier League elite sides away from St James Park, Newcastle’s recent away record is a total wipe out and reads W0, D0, L10 and Newcastle can be backed at around 10.00. If you do fancy Newcastle to do well here, then they can be backed on the Asian Handicap (+1.0/1.5) goals at around 2.00.

When looking at how both sides have performed against similar opposition then we could see some goals. 8 of Newcastle’s last 10 away games when visiting the elite sides have seen 3 or more goals, as have 6 of Manchester United’s last 10 home games to teams of Newcastle’s stature. My ratings suggest there is value backing over 2.5/3.0 goals which can be backed at around 2.00.

This looks as though it could be a comfortable afternoon for Louis van Gaal’s side. My ratings suggest value both in the home win and the overs goal line. Looking at the goal line it should be noted that 8 of Newcastle’s last 15 away games have seen 2 or less goals. Here as previously stated this looks a routine win for United. When looking at Newcastle they just do not like these matches facing top class opposition away from St James Park. In these games Newcastle have now lost their last 12 on the bounce and losing 10 by 2 clear goals. Here Manchester United are rightful favourites and the risk v reward looks worth taking on the handicap, and so my recommended trade is Manchester United -1.0/1.5 at around 1.93.

Category: Predictions

Written by: MATCHBOOK

Date: 10:27 21 Aug, 2015