15th October BENFICA - CELTIC

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• This is priced as a mismatch. Benfica is the shortest price on a book of 1.25 / 6 / 11 (1 / X / 2), an implied 75.6%. Across the three outcomes the book reads 75.6% / 15.8% / 8.6% on an overround of 5.8%.

• In the league table Benfica sit 7th on 3 points (1W 0D 0L) with Celtic 28th on 0 points (0W 0D 1L).

• Benfica read W-L-W-W-W-W across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (5W 0D 1L) — about as good as form gets.

• Celtic read W-L-L-L-W-W across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (3W 0D 3L) — patchy.

• Head to head the record reads 3-1-2 — Benfica wins, draws, then Celtic wins. Their last meeting finished Benfica - Celtic: 2-1.

• Our last-six model flags 2 qualifying strikes here. Reading Benfica first, then Celtic, out of their last six: O 3.50 3 and 4, HT GG 1 and 4.

• Benfica lean hardest on Rafa (9.5), Vangelis Pavlidis (9.5), Samuel Soares (9.5) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.

• Celtic lean hardest on Kieran Tierney (9.5), Cameron Carter-Vickers (9.5), Benjamin Nygren (9.5) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.

• The read: Benfica at 1.25 is short enough that the value, if there is any, sits on the handicap or in the goals market rather than the outright.

• This analysis is generated automatically from BTFNews odds, market and statistical data at 06:50 on 14th October 2026. It is information, not advice — always check team news before the off.