11th October LECCE - BOLOGNA

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• This is priced as a comfortable favourite. Bologna is the shortest price on a book of 4.33 / 3.30 / 1.91 (1 / X / 2), an implied 49.5%. Across the three outcomes the book reads 21.8% / 28.7% / 49.5% on an overround of 5.8%.

• The draw is unusually well backed at 3.30 (28.7%), which normally points to a cagey, low-scoring game rather than an open one.

• Liquidity is strong — €35,750 already matched on the 1X2 market, putting this among the most heavily traded fixtures on the card. Prices in a market that deep are far more reliable than in a thin one.

• In the league table Lecce sit 11th on 6 points (2W 0D 3L) with Bologna 19th on 2 points (0W 2D 3L).

• Lecce read L-W-L-L-W-W across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (3W 0D 3L) — patchy.

• Bologna read D-L-D-L-L-D across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (0W 3D 3L) — more bad than good.

• Head to head the record reads 0-3-3 — Lecce wins, draws, then Bologna wins. Their last meeting finished Bologna - Lecce: 2-0.

• Our last-six model flags 1 qualifying strike here. Reading Lecce first, then Bologna, out of their last six: NG 5 and 4.

• Lecce lean hardest on Nikola Stulic (9.5), Kialonda Gaspar (9.5), Jamil Siebert (9.4) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.

• Bologna lean hardest on Tommaso Pobega (9.5), Federico Bernardeschi (9.3), Arthur Theate (9.0) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.

• The read: Bologna at 1.91 is the side the market is with, and nothing in the data above argues against it.

• This analysis is generated automatically from BTFNews odds, market and statistical data at 22:30 on 10th October 2026. It is information, not advice — always check team news before the off.