11th October NAUTICO - VILA NOVA

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• There is a clear but slim favourite here. Nautico is the shortest price on a book of 2.1 / 3.1 / 3.3 (1 / X / 2), an implied 43.2%. Across the three outcomes the book reads 43.2% / 29.3% / 27.5% on an overround of 10.2%.

• The draw is unusually well backed at 3.1 (29.3%), which normally points to a cagey, low-scoring game rather than an open one.

• In the league table Nautico sit 13th on 42 points (11W 9D 12L) with Vila Nova 2nd on 58 points (17W 7D 8L).

• Nautico read L-D-W-L-D-L across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (1W 2D 3L) — more bad than good.

• Vila Nova read D-W-W-W-D-W across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (4W 2D 0L) — a strong recent run.

• Head to head the record reads 0-0-1 — Nautico wins, draws, then Vila Nova wins. Their last meeting finished Vila Nova - Nautico: 4-3.

• Nautico lean hardest on Muriel (9.5), Betao (9.4), Wenderson da Silva Costa Ferreira (9.4) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.

• Vila Nova lean hardest on Helton Leite (9.5), Andre Luis (9.4), Marquinhos Gabriel (9.2) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.

• The read: Nautico at 2.1 is the side the market is with, and nothing in the data above argues against it.

• This analysis is generated automatically from BTFNews odds, market and statistical data at 22:30 on 10th October 2026. It is information, not advice — always check team news before the off.