3rd October GUBBIO - PERUGIA

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• A narrow edge, nothing more. Perugia is the shortest price on a book of 3.14 / 2.91 / 2.41 (1 / X / 2), an implied 38.5%. Across the three outcomes the book reads 29.6% / 31.9% / 38.5% on an overround of 7.7%.

• The draw is unusually well backed at 2.91 (31.9%), which normally points to a cagey, low-scoring game rather than an open one.

• In the league table Gubbio sit 2nd on 0 points (0W 0D 0L) with Perugia 10th on 0 points (0W 0D 0L).

• Gubbio read L-W-D-D-L-L across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (1W 2D 3L) — more bad than good.

• Perugia read D-W-L-W-W-D across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (3W 2D 1L) — patchy.

• Head to head the record reads 3-3-0 — Gubbio wins, draws, then Perugia wins. Their last meeting finished Perugia - Gubbio: 0-1.

• The read: Everything here points at a tight, low-tempo game. The draw at 2.91 is the selection the numbers keep coming back to, and the unders are the natural second look.

• This analysis is generated automatically from BTFNews odds, market and statistical data at 08:50 on 2nd October 2026. It is information, not advice — always check team news before the off.