3rd October AFC WIMBLEDON - STEVENAGE

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• There is a clear but slim favourite here. Stevenage is the shortest price on a book of 2.96 / 3.18 / 2.49 (1 / X / 2), an implied 38.1%. Across the three outcomes the book reads 32.1% / 29.8% / 38.1% on an overround of 5.4%.

• The draw is unusually well backed at 3.18 (29.8%), which normally points to a cagey, low-scoring game rather than an open one.

• In the league table Afc Wimbledon sit 8th on 12 points (3W 3D 2L) with Stevenage 13th on 9 points (2W 3D 2L).

• Afc Wimbledon read D-D-W-W-L-W across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (3W 2D 1L) — patchy.

• Stevenage read W-L-W-W-D-D across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (3W 2D 1L) — patchy.

• Head to head the record reads 0-2-4 — Afc Wimbledon wins, draws, then Stevenage wins. Their last meeting finished Stevenage - Afc Wimbledon: 1-0.

• Afc Wimbledon lean hardest on Ryan Johnson (9.5), Steve Seddon (9.5), Alistair Smith (9.5) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.

• Stevenage lean hardest on Luther James-Wildin (9.5), Dan Kemp (9.5), Terence Vancooten (9.5) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.

• The read: Everything here points at a tight, low-tempo game. The draw at 3.18 is the selection the numbers keep coming back to, and the unders are the natural second look.

• This analysis is generated automatically from BTFNews odds, market and statistical data at 08:50 on 2nd October 2026. It is information, not advice — always check team news before the off.