21st September GUIDONIA MONTECELIO - LIVORNO

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• The market leans one way without any real conviction. Guidonia Montecelio is the shortest price on a book of 2.39 / 2.93 / 3.15 (1 / X / 2), an implied 38.8%. Across the three outcomes the book reads 38.8% / 31.7% / 29.5% on an overround of 7.7%.

• The draw is unusually well backed at 2.93 (31.7%), which normally points to a cagey, low-scoring game rather than an open one.

• In the league table Guidonia Montecelio sit 20th on 0 points (0W 0D 0L) with Livorno 8th on 0 points (0W 0D 0L).

• Guidonia Montecelio read W-L-L-L-D-D across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (1W 2D 3L) — more bad than good.

• Livorno read W-W-L-W-L-L across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (3W 0D 3L) — patchy.

• Head to head the record reads 1-0-1 — Guidonia Montecelio wins, draws, then Livorno wins. Their last meeting finished Guidonia Montecelio - Livorno: 0-2.

• The read: Everything here points at a tight, low-tempo game. The draw at 2.93 is the selection the numbers keep coming back to, and the unders are the natural second look.

• This analysis is generated automatically from BTFNews odds, market and statistical data at 06:50 on 20th September 2026. It is information, not advice — always check team news before the off.