12th September BLACKBURN - MILLWALL

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• Bookmakers have this as close to a coin toss as the 1X2 market gets. Millwall is the shortest price on a book of 2.70 / 3.20 / 2.57 (1 / X / 2), an implied 36.3%. Across the three outcomes the book reads 34.6% / 29.2% / 36.3% on an overround of 7.2%.

• The draw is unusually well backed at 3.20 (29.2%), which normally points to a cagey, low-scoring game rather than an open one.

• In the league table Blackburn sit 18th on 5 points (1W 2D 3L) with Millwall 8th on 9 points (3W 0D 2L).

• Blackburn read L-L-D-L-W-D across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (1W 2D 3L) — more bad than good.

• Millwall read W-L-L-W-W-L across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (3W 0D 3L) — patchy.

• Head to head the record reads 5-0-1 — Blackburn wins, draws, then Millwall wins. Their last meeting finished Millwall - Blackburn: 1-2.

• Blackburn team news: Andri Gudjohnsen will have a scan after picking up an injury ahead of the Sheffield United game.

• Blackburn team news: With minimal squad depth, Tony Mowbray may opt to field the same starting XI that lost on Tuesday night.

• Millwall team news: Jenson Metcalfe's red card has been rescinded, so he is eligible for selection on Saturday.

• Millwall team news: Alex Neil might recall Zak Sturge, Tairyk Arconte and Max Crocombe to the starting lineup.

• Blackburn are without 8 — Andri Gudjohnsen (Out - injured), Lewis Miller (Out - injured), Moussa Baradji (Out - injured), Augustus Kargbo (Out - injured), Matty Litherland (Out - injured), Scott Wharton (Out - injured). Losing Andri Gudjohnsen (7.16/10) is the kind of absence that moves a price.

• Millwall are without 12 — Ryan Leonard (Out - injured), Josh Coburn (Out - injured), Lukas Jensen (Out - injured), Mathis Servais (Out - injured), Tristan Crama (Out - injured), Mihailo Ivanovic (Out - injured). Losing Ryan Leonard (7.55/10) is the kind of absence that moves a price.

• Early lineups are in: Blackburn set up 4-2-3-1 against 4-2-3-1. See the pitch graphic above for the full XI.

• Blackburn lean hardest on Sam Morsy (8.2), Yuri Ribeiro (8.2), Todd Cantwell (8.2) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.

• Andri Gudjohnsen is out for Blackburn — index 8.1, against 8.3 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.

• Millwall lean hardest on Max Crocombe (9.5), Jake Cooper (9.5), Caleb Taylor (9.5) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.

• Josh Coburn is out for Millwall — index 6.5, against 7.0 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.

• Mark Sykes is out for Millwall — index 6.6, against 8.4 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.

• Kyrell Lisbie is out for Millwall — index 6.5, against 8.4 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.

• Casper de Norre is out for Millwall — index 6.1, against 8.4 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.

• The projected score for this one is Blackburn 0 - 2 Millwall, an away win by 2 with 2 goals in it — short of the 2.5 line.

• The read: Everything here points at a tight, low-tempo game. The draw at 3.20 is the selection the numbers keep coming back to, and the unders are the natural second look.

• This analysis is generated automatically from BTFNews odds, market and statistical data at 06:50 on 11th September 2026. It is information, not advice — always check team news before the off.