UNION BERLIN - BORUSSIA DORTMUND
A heavy favourite, with the price to match. Borussia Dortmund is the shortest price on a book of 5.75 / 4.33 / 1.57 (1 / X / 2), an implied 61.1%. Across the three outcomes the book reads 16.7% / 22.2% / 61.1% on an overround of 4.2%.
Liquidity is strong — €39,789 already matched on the 1X2 market, putting this among the most heavily traded fixtures on the card. Prices in a market that deep are far more reliable than in a thin one.
In the league table Union Berlin sit 16th on 4 points (1W 1D 3L) with Borussia Dortmund 2nd on 13 points (4W 1D 0L).
Union Berlin read W-L-L-L-D-W across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (2W 1D 3L) — more bad than good.
Borussia Dortmund read L-D-W-W-W-W across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (4W 1D 1L) — a strong recent run.
Head to head the record reads 2-0-4 — Union Berlin wins, draws, then Borussia Dortmund wins. Their last meeting finished Union Berlin - Borussia Dortmund: 0-3.
Union Berlin are without 6 — Andrik Markgraf (Out - injured), Marvin Friedrich (Out - injured), Andrej Ilic (Out - unfit), Stanley Nsoki (Out - unfit), Josip Juranovic (Doubtful - unfit), Emmanuel Latte Lath (Doubtful - injured).
Borussia Dortmund are without 3 — Giannis Konstantelias (Out - injured), Emre Can (Out - injured), Mussa Kaba (Doubtful - injured). Losing Giannis Konstantelias (7.80/10) is the kind of absence that moves a price.
Early lineups are in: Union Berlin set up 4-4-2 against 3-4-2-1. See the pitch graphic above for the full XI.
Union Berlin lean hardest on Rani Khedira (7.7), Felix Uduokhai (7.7), Michel Aebischer (7.7) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.
Josip Juranovic is out for Union Berlin — index 6.8, against 9.2 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.
Emmanuel Latte Lath is out for Union Berlin — index 7.1, against 6.8 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.
Borussia Dortmund lean hardest on Serhou Guirassy (7.8), Waldemar Anton (7.8), Gregor Kobel (7.8) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.
Giannis Konstantelias is out for Borussia Dortmund — index 4.7, against 8.6 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.
The projected score for this one is Union Berlin 1 - 2 Borussia Dortmund, an away win by 1 with 3 goals in it — on the right side of the 2.5 line.
The read: Borussia Dortmund at 1.57 is heavily fancied away from home. Backing a favourite at that price only makes sense on the handicap.
This analysis is generated automatically from BTFNews odds, market and statistical data at 08:50 on 17th October 2026. It is information, not advice — always check team news before the off.