GUIDONIA MONTECELIO - LIVORNO
The market leans one way without any real conviction. Livorno is the shortest price on a book of 3.46 / 3.11 / 2.20 (1 / X / 2), an implied 42.7%. Across the three outcomes the book reads 27.1% / 30.2% / 42.7% on an overround of 6.5%.
The draw is unusually well backed at 3.11 (30.2%), which normally points to a cagey, low-scoring game rather than an open one.
Money has come for Livorno to win: the price has shortened from 3.08 to 2.26, a move of 36.3%. Steam like that on the day of the game usually reflects team news the wider market has not caught up with yet.
Guidonia Montecelio to win has drifted from 2.28 to 3.08 (26.0%). Layers are happy to take that side on, which is worth respecting.
Liquidity is strong — €10,491 already matched on the 1X2 market, putting this among the most heavily traded fixtures on the card. Prices in a market that deep are far more reliable than in a thin one.
Our monitoring has flagged unusual money on this game: 85% of the matched volume has gone on Livorno to win. Treat it as a signal to look closer, not as a tip in itself.
The Asian line sits at 0.25 goals, with Livorno giving the start, split 1.96 / 1.89. The handicap is the cleaner read on the expected margin here.
In the league table Guidonia Montecelio sit 20th on 0 points (0W 0D 0L) with Livorno 8th on 0 points (0W 0D 0L).
Guidonia Montecelio read W-L-L-L-D-D across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (1W 2D 3L) — more bad than good.
Livorno read W-W-L-W-L-L across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (3W 0D 3L) — patchy.
Head to head the record reads 1-0-1 — Guidonia Montecelio wins, draws, then Livorno wins. Their last meeting finished Guidonia Montecelio - Livorno: 0-2.
Guidonia Montecelio are without 2 — Mule (Out), Riggio (Out).
Livorno are without 1 — Djidji (Doubtful). Of those, Djidji is the one this team genuinely misses.
The read: Livorno at 2.20 is the side the market is with, and nothing in the data above argues against it. The late money is pointing the same way.
This analysis is generated automatically from BTFNews odds, market and statistical data at 19:00 on 21st September 2026. It is information, not advice — always check team news before the off.