NEWCASTLE - HULL
The market expects a one-sided afternoon. Newcastle is the shortest price on a book of 1.6 / 4.33 / 5 (1 / X / 2), an implied 59.2%. Across the three outcomes the book reads 59.2% / 21.9% / 18.9% on an overround of 5.6%.
Liquidity is strong — €95,030 already matched on the 1X2 market, putting this among the most heavily traded fixtures on the card. Prices in a market that deep are far more reliable than in a thin one.
In the league table Newcastle sit 12th on 5 points (1W 2D 1L) with Hull 4th on 8 points (2W 2D 0L).
Newcastle read L-D-W-D-L-W across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (2W 2D 2L) — patchy.
Hull read D-D-W-W-W-W across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (4W 2D 0L) — a strong recent run.
Our last-six model flags 1 qualifying strike here. Reading Newcastle first, then Hull, out of their last six: DRAW 3 and 4.
Newcastle team news: Anthony Elanga is facing a period on the sidelines with a leg injury, while Nico Gonzalez is also out after sustaining a concussion at Leeds.
Newcastle team news: Dan Burn, Ewen Jaouen, Jacob Ramsey, Joelinton and William Osula will not be available until after the international break.
Hull team news: Hull may have to make at least one alteration from their surprising draw at Stamford Bridge after defender Nobel Mendy sustained a head injury and was hospitalized.
Hull team news: Young Australian Lucas Herrington might start in Mendy's stead.
Newcastle are without 7 — Anthony Elanga (Out - injured), William Osula (Out - injured), Joelinton (Out - injured), Ewen Jaouen (Out - injured), Dan Burn (Out - injured), Jacob Ramsey (Out - injured).
Hull are without 10 — Nobel Mendy (Doubtful - injured), Hidemasa Morita (Out - injured), Eliot Matazo (Out - injured), Óscar Zambrano (Out - injured), Ilyas Ansah (Out - injured), Darko Gyabi (Out - injured). Of those, Nobel Mendy (7.22/10) is the one this team genuinely misses.
Early lineups are in: Newcastle set up 4-5-1 against 5-4-1. See the pitch graphic above for the full XI.
Newcastle lean hardest on Yoane Wissa (9.5), Harvey Barnes (9.5), Malick Thiaw (9.5) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.
Anthony Elanga is out for Newcastle — index 7.3, against 9.5 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.
Nico González is out for Newcastle — index 8.3, against 9.5 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.
Hull lean hardest on Matt Crooks (6.6), John Egan (6.6), Oliver McBurnie (6.6) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.
Nobel Mendy is out for Hull — index 7.8, against 9.5 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.
Hidemasa Morita is out for Hull — index 7.6, against 9.3 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.
The projected score for this one is Newcastle 2 - 1 Hull, a home win by 1 with 3 goals in it — on the right side of the 2.5 line.
The read: Newcastle at 1.6 is the side the market is with, and nothing in the data above argues against it.
This analysis is generated automatically from BTFNews odds, market and statistical data at 16:00 on 18th September 2026. It is information, not advice — always check team news before the off.