21st October MATSUMOTO YAMAGA - THESPA GUNMA

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• The market has a firm view on this one. Matsumoto Yamaga is the shortest price on a book of 1.74 / 3.63 / 4.16 (1 / X / 2), an implied 52.7%. Across the three outcomes the book reads 52.7% / 25.3% / 22.0% on an overround of 9.1%.

• Over 2.5 goals has drifted from 1.63 to 1.74 (6.3%). Layers are happy to take that side on, which is worth respecting.

• In the league table Matsumoto Yamaga sit 15th on 11 points (2W 5D 4L) with Thespa Gunma 17th on 10 points (3W 1D 7L).

• Matsumoto Yamaga read L-W-L-W-D-L across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (2W 1D 3L) — more bad than good.

• Thespa Gunma read D-W-L-L-W-L across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (2W 1D 3L) — more bad than good.

• Head to head the record reads 0-0-2 — Matsumoto Yamaga wins, draws, then Thespa Gunma wins. Their last meeting finished Thespa Gunma - Matsumoto Yamaga: 6-2.

• Our last-six model flags 1 qualifying strike here. Reading Matsumoto Yamaga first, then Thespa Gunma, out of their last six: HT DRAW 3 and 4.

• The read: Matsumoto Yamaga at 1.74 is the side the market is with, and nothing in the data above argues against it.

• This analysis is generated automatically from BTFNews odds, market and statistical data at 15:30 on 20th October 2026. It is information, not advice — always check team news before the off.