10th October LILLE - LE HAVRE

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• A heavy favourite, with the price to match. Lille is the shortest price on a book of 1.44 / 4.5 / 7.5 (1 / X / 2), an implied 66.1%. Across the three outcomes the book reads 66.1% / 21.2% / 12.7% on an overround of 5.0%.

• In the league table Lille sit 4th on 10 points (3W 1D 1L) with Le Havre 18th on 2 points (0W 2D 3L).

• Lille read L-W-L-W-D-W across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (3W 1D 2L) — patchy.

• Le Havre read L-D-L-D-L-W across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (1W 2D 3L) — more bad than good.

• Head to head the record reads 3-1-2 — Lille wins, draws, then Le Havre wins. Their last meeting finished Lille - Le Havre: 1-1.

• Our last-six model flags 1 qualifying strike here. Reading Lille first, then Le Havre, out of their last six: U 2.50 5 and 5.

• Lille are without 1 — Hamza Igamane (Out - injured).

• Le Havre are without 4 — Lionel Mpasi (Out - injured), Felix Mambimbi (Out - injured), Stephan Zagadou (Out - injured), Timothée Pembélé (Out - injured). Of those, Lionel Mpasi (7.24/10) is the one this team genuinely misses.

• Early lineups are in: Lille set up 4-2-3-1 against 3-4-2-1. See the pitch graphic above for the full XI.

• Lille lean hardest on Nabil Bentaleb (6.7), Romain Perraud (6.7), Berke Özer (6.7) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.

• Le Havre lean hardest on Gauthier Gallon (8.5), Mbwana Samatta (8.5), Ahmed Touba (8.5) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.

• The projected score for this one is Lille 2 - 1 Le Havre, a home win by 1 with 3 goals in it — on the right side of the 2.5 line.

• The read: Lille at 1.44 is short enough that the value, if there is any, sits on the handicap or in the goals market rather than the outright.

• This analysis is generated automatically from BTFNews odds, market and statistical data at 08:50 on 9th October 2026. It is information, not advice — always check team news before the off.