8th October NAUTICO - NOVORIZONTINO

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• A narrow edge, nothing more. Novorizontino is the shortest price on a book of 3.25 / 3.30 / 2.15 (1 / X / 2), an implied 43.2%. Across the three outcomes the book reads 28.6% / 28.2% / 43.2% on an overround of 7.6%.

• The draw is unusually well backed at 3.30 (28.2%), which normally points to a cagey, low-scoring game rather than an open one.

• In the league table Nautico sit 13th on 42 points (11W 9D 11L) with Novorizontino 3rd on 54 points (15W 9D 7L).

• Nautico read D-W-L-D-L-W across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (2W 2D 2L) — patchy.

• Novorizontino read W-D-L-D-W-W across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (3W 2D 1L) — patchy.

• Head to head the record reads 0-1-0 — Nautico wins, draws, then Novorizontino wins. Their last meeting finished Novorizontino - Nautico: 2-2.

• Our last-six model flags 3 qualifying strikes here. Reading Nautico first, then Novorizontino, out of their last six: O 2.50 4 and 4, GG 4 and 4, HT GG 2 and 3.

• Nautico lean hardest on Muriel (9.5), Betao (9.4), Wenderson da Silva Costa Ferreira (9.4) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.

• Novorizontino lean hardest on Luis Oyama (9.5), Romulo (9.4), Robson (9.2) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.

• The read: Novorizontino at 2.15 is the side the market is with, and nothing in the data above argues against it.

• This analysis is generated automatically from BTFNews odds, market and statistical data at 13:30 on 7th October 2026. It is information, not advice — always check team news before the off.