6th October ESTONIA - ICELAND

Prices are indicative and sourced from a range of bookmakers, and may differ from those of any individual bookmaker.

Open an account with Bet365

• A heavy favourite, with the price to match. Iceland is the shortest price on a book of 5.5 / 4 / 1.6 (1 / X / 2), an implied 59.1%. Across the three outcomes the book reads 17.2% / 23.7% / 59.1% on an overround of 5.7%.

• Liquidity is strong — €15,960 already matched on the 1X2 market, putting this among the most heavily traded fixtures on the card. Prices in a market that deep are far more reliable than in a thin one.

• Our monitoring has flagged unusual money on this game: 75% of the matched volume has gone on under 2.5 goals. Treat it as a signal to look closer, not as a tip in itself.

• Estonia are without 5 — Vlasiy Sinyavskiy (Out), Martin Miller (Out), Rocco Robert Shein (Out), Vladislav Kreida (Out), Mark Anders Lepik (Out).

• Iceland are without 10 — Jóhann Guðmundsson (Out), Sverrir Ingason (Out), Mikael Ellertsson (Suspended), Stefán Þórðarson (Doubtful), Hjörtur Hermannsson (Out), Alfons Sampsted (Out). Losing Jóhann Guðmundsson is the kind of absence that moves a price.

• Confirmed lineups are in: Estonia set up 3-5-2 against 4-3-3. See the pitch graphic above for the full XI.

• Estonia lean hardest on Maksim Paskotsi (9.5), Rasmus Peetson (9.1), Maerten Kuusk (9.1) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.

• Iceland lean hardest on Isak Bergmann Johannesson (9.5), Hakon Arnar Haraldsson (9.5), Orri Oskarsson (9.5) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.

• Mikael Ellertsson is out for Iceland — index 7.7, against 7.5 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.

• Played at Albert le Coq Arena, capacity 15,000. David Dickinson takes charge.

• The read: Iceland at 1.6 is the side the market is with, and nothing in the data above argues against it.

• This analysis is generated automatically from BTFNews odds, market and statistical data at 19:30 on 6th October 2026. It is information, not advice — always check team news before the off.