4th October CASTELLON - AD CEUTA FC

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• This is priced as a mismatch. Castellon is the shortest price on a book of 1.22 / 6 / 11 (1 / X / 2), an implied 76.1%. Across the three outcomes the book reads 76.1% / 15.5% / 8.4% on an overround of 7.7%.

• In the league table Castellon sit 1st on 19 points (6W 1D 0L) with Ad Ceuta Fc 21st on 4 points (1W 1D 5L).

• Castellon read W-W-W-W-W-D across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (5W 1D 0L) — about as good as form gets.

• Ad Ceuta Fc read W-D-L-L-L-L across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (1W 1D 4L) — poor.

• Head to head the record reads 0-2-0 — Castellon wins, draws, then Ad Ceuta Fc wins. Their last meeting finished Ad Ceuta Fc - Castellon: 1-1.

• Our last-six model flags 1 qualifying strike here. Reading Castellon first, then Ad Ceuta Fc, out of their last six: HT U 1.50 5 and 5.

• Castellon lean hardest on Juanjo Nieto (9.5), Diego Barri (9.5), Agustin Sienra (9.5) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.

• Ad Ceuta Fc lean hardest on Kuki Zalazar (9.5), Alejandro Camacho Ramirez (9.5), Carlos Hernandez (9.2) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.

• The read: Castellon at 1.22 is short enough that the value, if there is any, sits on the handicap or in the goals market rather than the outright.

• This analysis is generated automatically from BTFNews odds, market and statistical data at 08:50 on 3rd October 2026. It is information, not advice — always check team news before the off.