4th October NETHERLANDS - SERBIA

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• This is priced as a mismatch. Netherlands is the shortest price on a book of 1.167 / 7 / 17 (1 / X / 2), an implied 80.9%. Across the three outcomes the book reads 80.9% / 13.5% / 5.6% on an overround of 5.9%.

• Netherlands team news: Jan Paul van Hecke, a central defender, has joined the Netherlands' injury list after sitting out the Greece match.

• Netherlands team news: Tijjani Reijners and Ryan Gravenberch are set to take their places in the Netherlands starting lineup.

• Serbia team news: Dusan Vlahovic is still a doubt after sitting out the Germany match with a calf issue.

• Serbia team news: Veljko Paunovic is likely to bring Sasa Lukic and Strahinja Pavlovic back in for Sunday's game.

• Netherlands are without 6 — Jan Paul van Hecke (Out - injured), Cody Gakpo (Out - injured), Frenkie de Jong (Out - injured), Mats Wieffer (Out - injured), Donyell Malen (Out - injured), Brian Brobbey (Out - injured). Jan Paul van Hecke (7.35/10) would normally be first on the team sheet — that is a real hole in this side.

• Serbia are without 2 — Mihailo Ivanovic (Out - injured), Dusan Vlahovic (Doubtful - injured).

• Early lineups are in: Netherlands set up 4-3-3 against 4-2-3-1. See the pitch graphic above for the full XI.

• Netherlands lean hardest on Denzel Dumfries (8.1), Tijjani Reijnders (8.1), Ryan Gravenberch (8.1) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.

• Jan Paul van Hecke is out for Netherlands — index 7.1, against 8.8 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.

• Cody Gakpo is out for Netherlands — index 8.2, against 9.0 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.

• Brian Brobbey is out for Netherlands — index 7.2, against 9.0 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.

• Serbia lean hardest on Filip Kostic (8.1), Andrija Zivkovic (8.1), Srdjan Babic (8.1) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.

• The projected score for this one is Netherlands 2 - 0 Serbia, a home win by 2 with 2 goals in it — short of the 2.5 line.

• The read: Netherlands at 1.167 is short enough that the value, if there is any, sits on the handicap or in the goals market rather than the outright.

• This analysis is generated automatically from BTFNews odds, market and statistical data at 08:50 on 3rd October 2026. It is information, not advice — always check team news before the off.