5th October DEPORTIVO PARAGUAYO - MERCEDES

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• There is a clear but slim favourite here. Mercedes is the shortest price on a book of 3.71 / 2.51 / 2.25 (1 / X / 2), an implied 40.0%. Across the three outcomes the book reads 24.2% / 35.8% / 40.0% on an overround of 11.2%.

• The draw is unusually well backed at 2.51 (35.8%), which normally points to a cagey, low-scoring game rather than an open one.

• In the league table Deportivo Paraguayo sit 16th on 19 points (4W 7D 10L) with Mercedes 4th on 33 points (8W 9D 5L).

• Deportivo Paraguayo read L-D-W-L-L-D across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (1W 2D 3L) — more bad than good.

• Mercedes read L-D-W-W-W-D across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (3W 2D 1L) — patchy.

• Head to head the record reads 0-0-1 — Deportivo Paraguayo wins, draws, then Mercedes wins. Their last meeting finished Mercedes - Deportivo Paraguayo: 2-1.

• The read: Mercedes at 2.25 is the side the market is with, and nothing in the data above argues against it.

• This analysis is generated automatically from BTFNews odds, market and statistical data at 06:50 on 4th October 2026. It is information, not advice — always check team news before the off.