1st October ENVIGADO - ORSOMARSO

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• A heavy favourite, with the price to match. Envigado is the shortest price on a book of 1.69 / 3.41 / 5.12 (1 / X / 2), an implied 54.8%. Across the three outcomes the book reads 54.8% / 27.1% / 18.1% on an overround of 8.0%.

• The draw is unusually well backed at 3.41 (27.1%), which normally points to a cagey, low-scoring game rather than an open one.

• In the league table Envigado sit 12th on 10 points (2W 4D 3L) with Orsomarso 13th on 9 points (2W 3D 4L).

• Envigado read W-D-D-D-L-L across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (1W 3D 2L) — patchy.

• Orsomarso read L-D-L-L-L-W across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (1W 1D 4L) — poor.

• Head to head the record reads 3-0-0 — Envigado wins, draws, then Orsomarso wins. Their last meeting finished Orsomarso - Envigado: 0-1.

• Our last-six model flags 4 qualifying strikes here. Reading Envigado first, then Orsomarso, out of their last six: HT DRAW 4 and 2, U 2.50 4 and 5, HT U 1.50 5 and 6, NG 4 and 5.

• The read: Envigado at 1.69 is the side the market is with, and nothing in the data above argues against it.

• This analysis is generated automatically from BTFNews odds, market and statistical data at 08:50 on 30th September 2026. It is information, not advice — always check team news before the off.