25th September NOVORIZONTINO - SAO BERNARDO

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• This is priced as a mismatch. Novorizontino is the shortest price on a book of 1.53 / 3.75 / 6.00 (1 / X / 2), an implied 60.1%. Across the three outcomes the book reads 60.1% / 24.5% / 15.3% on an overround of 8.7%.

• In the league table Novorizontino sit 3rd on 50 points (14W 8D 7L) with Sao Bernardo 12th on 41 points (11W 8D 10L).

• Novorizontino read L-D-W-W-W-W across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (4W 1D 1L) — a strong recent run.

• Sao Bernardo read W-W-L-W-L-D across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (3W 1D 2L) — patchy.

• Head to head the record reads 2-2-0 — Novorizontino wins, draws, then Sao Bernardo wins. Their last meeting finished Novorizontino - Sao Bernardo: 1-0.

• Our last-six model flags 2 qualifying strikes here. Reading Novorizontino first, then Sao Bernardo, out of their last six: HT DRAW 2 and 4, GG 6 and 3.

• Novorizontino lean hardest on Luis Oyama (9.5), Patrick Marcos de Sousa Freitas (9.5), Madson (9.3) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.

• Sao Bernardo lean hardest on Alex Alves De Lima (9.5), Rodrigo Ferreira (9.4), Felipe Garcia (9.0) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.

• The read: Novorizontino at 1.53 is short enough that the value, if there is any, sits on the handicap or in the goals market rather than the outright.

• This analysis is generated automatically from BTFNews odds, market and statistical data at 06:50 on 24th September 2026. It is information, not advice — always check team news before the off.