1st September PORTSMOUTH - DERBY

A narrow edge, nothing more. Portsmouth is the shortest price on a book of 2.2 / 3.2 / 3.25 (1 / X / 2), an implied 42.3%. Across the three outcomes the book reads 42.3% / 29.1% / 28.6% on an overround of 7.5%.

The draw is unusually well backed at 3.2 (29.1%), which normally points to a cagey, low-scoring game rather than an open one.

In the league table Portsmouth sit 15th on 3 points (1W 0D 2L) with Derby 22nd on 1 point (0W 1D 2L).

Portsmouth read L-W-L-D-W-L across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (2W 1D 3L) — more bad than good.

Derby read L-D-L-L-W-L across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (1W 1D 4L) — poor.

Head to head the record reads 0-4-2 — Portsmouth wins, draws, then Derby wins. Their last meeting finished Portsmouth - Derby: 0-1.

Our last-six model flags 4 qualifying strikes here. Reading Portsmouth first, then Derby, out of their last six: O 2.50 5 and 6, O 3.50 4 and 2, GG 6 and 5, HT GG 3 and 2.

The read: Portsmouth at 2.2 is the side the market is with, and nothing in the data above argues against it.

This analysis is generated automatically from BTFNews odds, market and statistical data at 09:33 on 31st August 2026. It is information, not advice — always check team news before the off.