16th September AC MILAN - BENFICA

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• This is priced as a comfortable favourite. Ac Milan is the shortest price on a book of 2.05 / 3.50 / 3.50 (1 / X / 2), an implied 46.1%. Across the three outcomes the book reads 46.1% / 27.0% / 27.0% on an overround of 5.9%.

• In the league table Ac Milan sit 15th on 0 points (0W 0D 0L) with Benfica 23rd on 0 points (0W 0D 0L).

• Ac Milan read D-D-W-W-L-W across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (3W 2D 1L) — patchy.

• Benfica read W-W-W-W-W-W across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (6W 0D 0L) — about as good as form gets.

• Head to head the record reads 1-1-0 — Ac Milan wins, draws, then Benfica wins. Their last meeting finished Benfica - Ac Milan: 1-1.

• Ac Milan team news: Diego Moreira could potentially replace Pervis Estupinan, having made a positive impression against Lazio in their previous outing.

• Ac Milan team news: Matteo Gabbia's return to the bench last weekend means AC Milan are fully fit for this encounter.

• Benfica team news: Alexander Bah, the right-back, is Benfica's sole confirmed absentee for their journey to San Siro.

• Benfica team news: Joao Palhinha is likely to take up his usual position in the midfield after coming on from the bench in the previous match against Gil Vicente.

• Benfica are without 1 — Alexander Bah (Out - injured).

• Early lineups are in: Ac Milan set up 3-4-2-1 against 4-2-3-1. See the pitch graphic above for the full XI.

• Ac Milan lean hardest on Adrien Rabiot (9.5), Mike Maignan (9.5), Luka Modric (9.5) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.

• Benfica lean hardest on Rafa (9.5), Clément Lenglet (9.5), Vangelis Pavlidis (9.5) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.

• Alexander Bah is out for Benfica — index 7.9, against 8.8 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.

• The projected score for this one is Ac Milan 2 - 2 Benfica, a draw with 4 goals in it — on the right side of the 2.5 line.

• The read: Ac Milan at 2.05 is the side the market is with, and nothing in the data above argues against it.

• This analysis is generated automatically from BTFNews odds, market and statistical data at 08:50 on 15th September 2026. It is information, not advice — always check team news before the off.