23rd October AL KARKH - AL-MOSUL

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• The market cannot separate these two. Al Karkh is the shortest price on a book of 2.50 / 2.88 / 2.67 (1 / X / 2), an implied 35.7%. Across the three outcomes the book reads 35.7% / 31.0% / 33.4% on an overround of 12.2%.

• The draw is unusually well backed at 2.88 (31.0%), which normally points to a cagey, low-scoring game rather than an open one.

• In the league table Al Karkh sit 17th on 8 points (2W 2D 6L) with Al-mosul 14th on 11 points (3W 2D 5L).

• Al Karkh read D-L-W-W-L-L across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (2W 1D 3L) — more bad than good.

• Al-mosul read W-L-L-L-L-D across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (1W 1D 4L) — poor.

• Head to head the record reads 1-1-0 — Al Karkh wins, draws, then Al-mosul wins. Their last meeting finished Al-mosul - Al Karkh: 1-2.

• Our last-six model flags 1 qualifying strike here. Reading Al Karkh first, then Al-mosul, out of their last six: BEST-WORST (0 wins against 1 defeats).

• The read: Everything here points at a tight, low-tempo game. The draw at 2.88 is the selection the numbers keep coming back to, and the unders are the natural second look.

• This analysis is generated automatically from BTFNews odds, market and statistical data at 08:50 on 22nd October 2026. It is information, not advice — always check team news before the off.