Napoli’s Champions League hopes were dealt a blow last weekend when they went down 3-1 to Juventus in Turin. Napoli can still qualify for the Champions League by winning this match as they have a better head-to-head record than Lazio. Currently, Napoli sit in 4th place on 63 points and they are 2 points ahead of 5th place Fiorentina.
Napoli’s recent home record reads W10, D4, L1. When hosting the top Serie A sides, Napoli’s record is strong and reads W7, D1, L2 and Napoli can be backed at around 2.15. If you do fancy Napoli to do well here then I would certainly look to keep the draw on your side and Napoli can be backed on the -0.0/0.5 Asian Handicap at around 1.87
The recent head-to-head record at the San Paolo favours the home side and reads Napoli 3 wins, 2 Draws, and Lazio 0 wins. The draw can be backed at around 3.60 and my ratings suggest this offers some decent value.
Lazio could not secure their Champions League place last weekend after a disappointing 2-1 defeat to city rivals Roma. Lazio are stumbling towards the end of the season and they have now won only 2 of their last 7 league matches. Lazio’s recent away record reads a very reasonable-looking W7, D5, L3. When facing the top teams of the Serie A, Lazio’s away record is fairly poor and reads W2, D2, L6 and they can be backed at around 3.70. If you do fancy Lazio to do well here then it is certainly best to keep the draw on your side and Lazio can be backed on the +0.0/0.5 line at around 2.10.
As far as goals are concerned then the stats are mixed. When looking at both sides last 10 home and away games to similar opposition, 8 of the 20 matches have seen 4 or more goals, 2 games have seen 3 goals, and 10 have seen 2 or less goals scored. Looking at the general stats, 11 of Napoli’s last 15 home games have seen 3 or more goals. My ratings suggest value in Over 2.5/3.0 Goals which can be backed at around 2.00.
Games do not come much bigger than this and it is looking like it will be Rafa Benitez' last game as Napoli manager. Lazio let slip a great chance of qualifying for the Champions League when conceding a late goal in the defeat against Roma last weekend and this could certainly come back to haunt them.
Looking at the goal line Napoli’s home matches have been full of goals and over 2.5/3 goals would certainly be my leaning. For my trade I am turning to the match line where Napoli have a strong record hosting the elite sides. My ratings suggest the draw should not be discounted and by keeping a part of this on my side, there looks some decent risk v reward backing Napoli on the handicap. So my recommended trade is Napoli -0.0/0.5 at around 1.87.