Newly crowned Champions Juventus host Napoli


Juventus are having a fantastic season. Not only have they won their 4th Serie A title in a row but they also won the Coppa Italia against Lazio on Wednesday as well as progressing to the Champions League final in June. Since winning the title, Juve have taken their foot off the gas and have rotated their squad. In these matches they have drawn against Cagliari at home and beaten Inter away. Juve’s home record reads a very strong looking W12, D3, L0.

When hosting the elite sides of the Serie A, once again Juventus have an excellent record that reads W9, D1, L0 and Juventus can be backed at around 3.20 and this price offers some excellent value and this is due to the match situation and the team they are likely to put out.

The recent head-to-head record at the Juventus Stadium reads Juventus 3 wins, 1 Draws and Napoli 1 win.

The draw can be backed at around 3.40 and although this should not be discounted it offers little value.

Napoli are coming into this match on the back of a very unconvincing 3-2 victory over Cesena. Currently they sit in 4th place on 63 points which is 3 points behind Lazio and 4 behind Roma who meet each other on Monday. Here it is vital that Napoli get something out of this game to keep their Champions League hopes alive. Napoli’s recent away record reads a reasonable looking W5, D4, L6.

When facing the top sides of Serie A, Napoli again boast a reasonable record which reads W3, D3, L4 and they can be backed at around 2.45. When looking at my ratings this does not offer any real value. 

As far as goals are concerned then the stats suggest value in the Under. When looking at both sides' last 10 home and away games against similar opposition we can see that in the 20 matches, 4 or more goals were seen in 3 matches, 3 goals were seen in 6 matches and 2 or less goals were seen in 11. Under 2.5/3.0 goals can be backed at around 1.88. 

This is an interesting matchup where as previously stated Napoli have to gain at least a point in order for their Champions League qualification hopes to remain alive. Juventus having played in the Italian Cup on Wednesday evening are almost certain to rotate their squad. Napoli on the other hand have looked poor away from home recently winning just 1 of their last 7 away games. There are too many unknowns on the match line and this game is priced up on Napoli’s need for the victory. For my trade I am going to turn to the goal line where none of Napolis last 10 away games to the elite sides have seen 4 or more goals and the Unders offers decent risk v reward and so my recommended trade is under 2.5/3.0 goals at around 1.88.

Category: Predictions

Written by: MATCHBOOK

Date: 15:24 21 May, 2015