Southampton entertain an improving Aston Villa side at St Mary’s


Despite losing 4 of their last 6 Premier league matches, Southampton have had an excellent season. Currently the Saints sit in 7th place on 57 points and they still have an outside chance of gaining a Europa Cup place. Southampton are coming off a 0-2 defeat at Leicester and their recent home form reads an above average W8, D3, L4.

When facing teams of Villa’s standing Ronald Koeman’s side boast a reasonable record that reads W5, D3, L2 and Southampton can be backed at around 1.78. If you want to enhance this price Southampton can be backed on the -0.5/1 goal handicap at around 2.05.

The recent head-to-head record at St Marys reads Southampton 1 win, 0 Draws and Aston Villa 1 win.

The draw can be backed at around 3.80 and this does not look to offer any real value.

Aston Villa are coming into this match in some very good form. There is no question about it the appointment of Tim Sherwood has made a huge difference and as well as reaching the FA Cup final Villa have now won 3 of their last 4 Premier League matches. After beating West Ham 1-0 at the weekend Villa now sit in 14th place on 38 points which is now 4 points above the drop zone. Aston Villa’s recent away form reads W3, D2, L10

When facing teams of Southampton’s grade Villa’s away record reads a mediocre looking W2, D1, L7. If you do fancy them to do well here then you are certainly best keeping an element of the 1 goal loss on your side and Villa can be backed + (0.5/1.0) goals at around 1.90.

As far as goals are concerned then there is a leaning to unders. When looking at both sides 15 home and away matches, we can see that in the 30 matches 12 have seen 3 or more goals scored, 9 have seen 2 goals, and 11 have seen 1 or less scored. When looking at Southampton’s recent home form to teams of Villa’s stature then 7 of their last 9 have seen 2 or less goals scored. My ratings suggest there is some small value in under 2.0/2.5 goals which can be backed at around 1.88.

As previously stated there is no question Villa have certainly improved under Tim Sherwood and indeed this season Villa have recorded victories at both Liverpool and Spurs. However despite their recent poor form Southampton perform solidly at St Mary’s especially against the lower half sides. This season when facing sides placed 11th and below the Saints have Won 8, Drawn 1 and lost none. When looking at the goal line although the ratings point to unders the last 2 games at St Marys have been entertaining affairs. So I am going to turn to the match line where when facing the bottom half sides Southampton have won 6 of their 8 victories by 2 or more goals My ratings suggest Southampton offer decent value here and so my recommended trade for this game is Southampton - (0.5/1.0) goals at around 2.05.

Category: Predictions

Written by: MATCHBOOK

Date: 21:52 14 May, 2015