Middlesbrough are coming into this match defending a 2-1 lead which they gained from an injury time winner in the first leg of what was an entertaining and hard fought match. Middlesbrough have had an excellent season at the Riverside where they have been extremely consistent and they have now won 11 of their last 13 home matches and their recent records reads a very solid looking W11, D3, L1

When hosting teams that were placed in the top 7 of the table Middlesbrough’s home record is strong and reads W4, D2, L0 and Middlesbrough can be backed at around 1.93. 

This season’s game between the 2 sides at the Riverside ended 4-0 to the home side.

The draw can be backed at around 3.70 and this looks to offer some decent value.

Brentford will be disappointed not to have come away with at least a draw from the 1st leg. However they will certainly believe that they can come back into this tie and their recent away record reads a reasonable looking W8, D2, L5. 

When facing teams placed in the Top 7 Brentford’s away record reads W1, D2, L3 and Brentford can be backed at around 4.22. If you do fancy Brentford to do well here then you can also keep the draw on your side and they can be backed on the handicap +0.5 goals at around 2.00.

Goal Stats

When looking at the goal line then we have some mixed stats. When looking at both sides respective 6 home and away matches to the Top 7 sides in the 12 matches 7 have seen 3 or more goals with 5 seeing 2 or less. This contrasts with Middlesbrough’s home form where only 5 of their last 15 home games have finished with Over 2.5 goals and Brentford’s recent away form which has seen 7 of their last 11 finish with 2 or less goals. Here my ratings suggest some small value backing Under 2.5 goals.

Prediction

This should be an entertaining match and Middlesbrough are coming into this game as rightful favourites to progress to the final. When looking at the goal line my ratings suggest some small value in the unders. However Brentford have to go chasing and an early goal for either side completely changes the dynamics of the game. Also it should be noted that Brentford have conceded in all 6 matches facing the Top 7 sides away from Griffin Park. Instead I am going to turn to the match line where the home side have shown consistency all season. They are yet to lose against a Top 7 side and in their last 13 games at the Riverside Middlesbrough have found the net at least twice in 9 of these matches. I expect Brentford to give this a real go but eventually go down to the home side who look to offer some small value. So my recommended trade for this game is Middlesbrough -0.5 goals at around 1.93.