10 May 2015 16:30 Manchester City v QPR
Despite relinquishing their title to Chelsea last weekend Manuel Pellegrini will be keen to finish the season on a high and City are coming off a very good 1-0 victory over Spurs at White Hart Lane. Manchester City now sit in 2nd place on 70 points and their recent home record W11, D3, L2.
When playing the bottom sides, Manchester City’s record is not that outstanding and reads W6, D3, L1. Here City can be backed at around 1.24 and this looks correctly priced.
The recent head-to-head record at the Etihad Stadium favours the home side and reads Manchester City 2 wins, 0 draws and Queens Park Rangers 0 wins.
If you do fancy Manchester City to win here then you do have the alternative of backing them on the Asian Handicap -2.0 goals at around 2.08.
The draw can be backed at around 7.50 and at this price, looks to offer some value.
Queens Park Rangers are coming into this game knowing that defeat will send them down to the Championship. QPR have now only won 1 of their last 10 League games and after losing 1-2 to Liverpool at Anfield over the weekend QPR now sit in 19th place on 27 points. QPR’s recent away record reads a very poor looking W2, D1, L12
When facing the Premier League elite sides, QPR’s away record reads W1, D0, L9 and Rangers can be backed at around 15.00. If you do fancy them to do well here then you can keep the 2 goal loss on your side and QPR can be backed on the Asian Handicap +2.0 goals at around 1.89.
Looking at the goal line then the stats are mixed. When looking at how both teams have played against similar opposition in the 20 matches 10 have seen 4 or more goals and 10 have seen 3 or less. My ratings suggest some value backing Over 3.5 goals at around 2.02.
This looks as though it will be the game that sends QPR back to the Championship and my ratings suggest value in the match & goal lines. Although my ratings suggest value in Over 3.5 goals, only 5 of Man City’s last 15 home and 5 of QPR’s last 15 away have seen 4 or more goals. For my trade I am going to turn to the match line where QPR will want to go down fighting. When hosting the bottom sides, only 2 of Man City’s last 10 have been won by 3 or more goals and when looking at QPR’s away record only 1 of their last 16 away games have been lost by 3 or more goals. So, although I expect QPR to be relegated this weekend, my recommended trade is QPR +2.0 at around 1.89.
10 May 2015 18:00 Chelsea v Liverpool
Chelsea are coming into this match in excellent form. They picked up their first title in 5 seasons last weekend when defeating Crystal Palace 1-0. Chelsea now top the table by 13 points and they have been extremely consistent throughout this campaign. Chelsea’s recent home form reads W12, D3, L0.
When playing the top Premier League sides, Chelsea’s record reads a very impressive looking W9, D1, L0 and Chelsea can be backed at around 2.15 and this looks to offer some value.
The recent head-to-head record at Stamford Bridge is fairly mixed and reads Chelsea 2 Wins, 1 Draw and Liverpool 2 wins.
The draw can be backed at around 3.45 and this does not look to offer any real value.
Liverpool are coming into this game on the back of a fortunate 2-1 victory over struggling Queens Park Rangers. Liverpool have won just 2 of their last 6 League games and these were against QPR & Newcastle and it is only thanks to Manchester United's 3 defeats in 3 matches that sees Brendan Rodgers' side still in the race for a Champions League spot. Liverpool’s recent away record reads W7, D2, L6.
When facing the Premier League elite sides away from home their record reads again a reasonable W3, D2, L5 and Liverpool can be backed at around 3.90. If you do fancy Liverpool then you are probably best keeping the draw on your side and they can be backed +0.0/0.5 goals at around 2.16.
As far as goals are concerned ,then we have some extremely mixed stats when looking at both sides' last 15 home and away games. In the 30 matches, 18 games have seen 2 goals or less and only 12 matches have seen 3 or more. However when facing similar opposition, 7 of Liverpool’s last 10 away and 5 of Chelsea’s last 10 home have seen 3 or more goals scored. My ratings suggest value in Under 2.0/2.5 goals which can be backed at around 2.07.
11 May 2015 22:00 Arsenal vs Swansea
This is a very interesting match-up and here the game is priced up on the fact that Chelsea may take their foot off the gas and Liverpool need the points to qualify for the Champions League. Obviously the above has to be taken into consideration, but can you really see Jose Mourinho not wanting to beat one of the Premier Leagues best sides? Although my ratings suggest value in Under 2.25 goals, we should be wary of Liverpool’s away record to the elite sides. Instead for my trade I am turning to the match line where Chelsea offer excellent value. In his 2 spells at Chelsea Jose Mourinho has only lost once in 96 Premier League home games. I can see that record extending to 97 on Sunday and Chelsea offer some excellent risk v reward on the -0.25 goal handicap. So my recommended trade for this game is Chelsea -0.0/0.5 at around 1.83.
Arsenal are coming into this game in some very good form. The Gunners were impressive in defeating Hull 3-1 at the KC Stadium last week and they have now taken 28 points from the last 30. Currently Arsene Wengers side sit in 3rd place on 70 points and now they have an excellent chance of finishing in 2nd place. Arsenal’s recent home record reads a very strong W10, D4, L1.
When playing teams of Swansea’s stature, Arsenal’s record again reads a reasonable looking W6, D3, L1 with all 6 of the 6 wins coming by 2 goals or more and the Gunners can be backed at around 1.30. The recent head-to-head record at the Emirates is mixed and reads Arsenal 1 win, 1 Draw and Swansea 1 win. The draw can be backed at around 6.00 and this looks to offer some value.
Under manager Garry Monk, Swansea are having an excellent season and indeed barring a complete down turn Swansea are heading for their best ever Premier League season. Swansea are coming into this game on the back of a 2-0 victory over Stoke City and their recent away record reads an average looking W5, D3, L7.
When facing the top two tier Premier League sides Swansea’s away record reads a very poor looking W1, D1, L8 and Swansea can be backed at around 11.50. If you do fancy them to do well here then you are certainly better looking to keep the 1 goal loss on your side and Swansea can be backed on the Asian Handicap +1.5 goals at around 2.05.
As far as goals are concerned and with the line set at 3 then we have some mixed stats. Although 11 of Arsenal’s last 15 home games have seen 3 or more goals, only 6 of Swansea’s last 15 away have finished with over 2.5 goals. When facing teams of similar opposition and looking at both sides last 10 respective home and away games. 8 matches have seen 4 or more goals, 6 have seen 3 and 6 have seen 2 or less scored. My ratings suggest some small value on Over 3 Goals which can be backed at around 2.03.
This is an interesting matchup and there is no question that Arsenal are rightful favourites. My ratings do suggest some small value in over 3 goals. However as the stats are very mixed I am turning to the match line. Although Swansea have a poor record away at the elite sides they have only lost 3 of these 10 matches by 2 goals or more. Here my ratings suggest that Arsenal should only be giving up 1/1.5 goals and so my recommended trade is Swansea +1.5 at around 2.05.