Ligue On Fire !


Marseille are having an excellent season and they are coming off a very good 4-0 victory at Lens. However, at home, after winning 11 games on the bounce, Marseille have not registered a win in 3 matches. Currently Marseille sit in 3rd place on 57 points which is just 2 points behind Sunday’s opposition. Marseille's home record reads a strong looking W11, D2, L2.

When hosting sides placed in the top 6, Marseille’s record reads a decent looking W5, D3, L2 and Marseille can be backed at around 3.20 and this looks to offer value. If you do fancy Marseille to do well here then I would certainly look to keep the draw on my side and Marseille can be backed on the Asian Handicap +0.0/0.5 goals at around 1.90.

The recent head-to-head record at the Velodrome Stadium favours the home side and reads Marseille 3 wins, 1 Draw and PSG 1 win. 

The draw can be backed at around 3.42 and my ratings suggest that this offers some very good value.

PSG are coming into this game on the back of a 3-1 victory over Lorient. Although PSG now top the table, they have shown some fairly mediocre away form and they have only won 1 of their last 7 away games. PSG’s recent away form reads a resilient looking W5, D7, L3.

When facing the top 6 Ligue 1 sides, PSG’s away record again reads a resilient looking W4, D5 L1. If you do fancy PSG to do well here then I would again look to keep an element of the draw on your side and PSG can be backed on the Asian Handicap - 0.0/0.5 goals at around 2.05.

Looking at the goal line then my ratings suggest that although we have some mixed stats there is some value backing Overs. When looking at both sides' last 10 home and away games to similar opposition, 10 of the 20 matches have seen 3 or more goals and 10 games have seen 2 or less goals.  When looking at the general form 10 of Marseille's last 14 home games have seen 3 or more goals. Also it should be noted that 4 of the last 5 head–to-head matches have also finished with at least 3 goals. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at around 1.95.

This is a crucial game and my ratings suggest that there is some value in both the match and goal line. Although my ratings suggest value in Overs, only 1 of PSG’s last 7 away games to the top 6 sides have seen 3 or more goals. For my trade I am going to turn to the match line and oppose the champions. Marseille look reasonable value and the draw looks a particularly strong selection priced at 3.42. I am going to keep this on my side and my recommended trade is Marseille +0.0/0.5 goals at around 1.90.

Category: Predictions

Written by: Erik M.

Date: 19:28 05 Apr, 2015